JAKARTA - A number of experts assess that the government has a rational policy basis when deciding not to lower the Pertamax price even though world oil prices have weakened. The price of non-subsidized fuel with RON 92 did not change from the level of Rp. 16,250/liter when PT Pertamina (Persero) announced that the price of other non-subsidized fuel (BBM) had decreased in July 2026.
The economist of Padjadjaran University (Unpad), Yayan Satyakti explained from the calculation model he developed, showed that the decision to maintain the Pertamax price at the level of Rp. 16,250 per liter can already be estimated. According to him, this policy is part of the price smoothing strategy that has been implemented by Pertamina.
"When Pertamax was raised to Rp. 16,250 in June, the price was actually still below the price implied by the formula because the world fuel product prices were very high at that time. Pertamina absorbed the losses at that time, so when the price of oil fell, the margin was restored by holding the Pertamax price, not immediately lowering it," said Yayan when contacted, Thursday, July 2.
Yayan explained that the price of non-subsidized fuel did not merely follow the movement of world crude oil prices. Based on a model that refers to the government's pricing formula and Pertamina's behavior as a price setter, Pertamax is expected to remain maintained.
For August, he explained that the basic formula indeed led to a price of around IDR 13,700 per liter, but the smoothing approach estimated the price to be in the range of IDR 16,000 per liter or not much different from the current price.
According to Yayan, if Pertamax is immediately lowered according to the formula, the main benefit is a decrease in inflation of around 0.4 percentage points in three months. On the other hand, if the price is maintained, the benefits of the decline in world oil prices are more used to improve Pertamina's margins, while the government's subsidy burden on Pertalite and Solar remains the largest component in the budget.
"If Pertamax is cut to the formula, our pass-through estimate implies about -0.4 percentage points of inflation over three months (annual easing from 3.34% to around 2.9%); if it is held, the impact is nil and all oil declines flow into the budget and into Pertamina's margin recovery," he said.
A similar view was expressed by public policy expert at Parahyangan Catholic University (Unpar), Kristian Widya Wicaksono. According to him, the government's decision not to lower the Pertamax price is still justified as long as it is based on a comprehensive price calculation and is presented publicly to the public.
"Fuel prices are not only determined by the world crude oil price on a certain day. The government and business entities also take into account the average price in a certain period, the rupiah exchange rate, processing costs, distribution costs, taxes, and reserves to anticipate market turmoil. Therefore, the decline in world oil prices does not always have to be immediately followed by a decrease in selling prices in the country," said Kristian.
He emphasized that as a non-subsidized fuel, Pertamax is not obliged to adjust the price every time the world oil price moves down. The main benchmark is whether the selling price still reflects economic costs based on the applicable formula.
"If the results of the calculation show that the prevailing price still reflects the cost of providing it, then maintaining the price is not a violation of the market principle. However, if the cost of provision has actually decreased but the price is still maintained, the government and business entities need to provide transparent explanations so as not to create the perception that consumers bear an unnecessary burden," he said.
Kristian also reminded the government not to mix the non-subsidized fuel price mechanism with the interests of closing the pressure on the state budget deficit. According to him, if the main reason for maintaining prices is to strengthen fiscal conditions, the government must explain the basis of the policy openly so as not to create uncertainty and reduce public confidence in energy governance.
"The success of energy policy is not only measured by the cheapness or cost of fuel prices, but also by the government's ability to maintain a balance between consumer interests, the sustainability of energy supply, the financial health of the country, and public confidence in the policy-making process," said Kristian.
Previously, Pertamina officially adjusted a number of fuel prices, today, Wednesday, July 1, 2026. The price of RON 92 fuel or Pertamax was still held by Pertamina at Rp16,250/liter, after experiencing an increase on June 10. On the other hand, the price of RON 98 fuel or Pertamax Turbo fell by Rp1,450/liter to Rp19,300/liter from the previous month's price of Rp20,750/liter.
Meanwhile, RON 95 or Pertamax Green 95 fuel is still held by Pertamina at a price of Rp. 17,000/liter.
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