JAKARTA - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that some parts of Indonesia will begin to enter the dry season in the April-May period. Meanwhile, this year's Ramadan in Indonesia is still potentially colored by rain
"Climatologically, in the April-May period, generally, Indonesia has entered the dry season. The regions that are expected to enter the dry season first are the East Nusa Tenggara and West Nusa Tenggara regions," said the Head of the BMKG Weather Early Prediction and Warning Working Team, Ida Pramuwardani, to reporters, Sunday, February 22.
Meanwhile, BMKG predicts that light to moderate rain is still potentially occurring at least until the end of February 2026.
In February, very high rainfall with an intensity of more than 500 mm per month is likely to occur in West Java, Central Java, East Nusa Tenggara, and South Sulawesi.
Then in March 2026, rainfall is generally predicted to be in the medium to high category. Very high rainfall (>500mm/month) has the potential to occur in West Java, Central Java, South Sulawesi, and Papua.
Ida explained that the areas that are relatively more prone to heavy rain are areas that often become the location of the growth of intense convective clouds and the strengthening of orographic rain.
"In general, the areas that are relatively more prone to heavy rain are areas that often become the location of the growth of intense convective clouds and the strengthening of orographic rain, such as the western coastal areas and mountainous areas and slopes," he said.
Meanwhile, the potential for strong winds is more often increased in coastal areas and open waters, as well as around thunderstorms or heavy rain that can trigger sudden gusts on a local scale.
Ida explained that the potential for significant rain in recent days was triggered by rapid changes in atmospheric dynamics that made the rain clouds develop more intensively in a number of areas.
"The potential for significant rainfall in recent days is triggered by rapid changes in atmospheric dynamics that cause rain clouds to develop more intensively in some areas," he said.
The increase in rain is related to the strengthening of the Asian Monsoon which brings strong westerly winds and accelerates the formation of convective clouds in the western and southern regions of Indonesia.
In addition, the negative Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly in a number of regions of Indonesia indicates that thick cloud cover is expanding. This condition is strengthened by the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the western part of Indonesia which increases rainfall in Sumatra, Kalimantan, and North Sulawesi.
The combined activity of the Equatorial Rossby Waves and Kelvin Waves in Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua also strengthens the convection process that triggers heavy rain.
BMKG ensures that early warning information is continuously updated. Weather forecasts are routinely delivered twice a day.
"BMKG also provides early warnings of potential significant rainfall and strong winds for the next five days for each province, which are presented in the form of infographics through official social media and the InfoBMKG application," explained Ida.
In addition, there is an early warning nowcasting or very short-term forecast for the next 1-3 hours. This information is disseminated through social media, the official BMKG website, to the SMS Blast service to the public.
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