JAKARTA - Political observer Ray Rangkuti assessed that the inclusion of Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin in the 2029 presidential candidate exchange added a list of individual figures who have the opportunity to advance without relying on the strength of political parties.
"There are more opportunities for individual figures to be nominated as national leaders. The presence of Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin extends the list of names, arises because of their own performance, without a party," Ray said when contacted by the media crew, Thursday, February 19.
According to Ray, this phenomenon is not new in Indonesian politics. He gave an example in the contest of the regional election, many individual candidates emerged and succeeded in becoming regional heads.
"Some of them are still nominated by the party. But, they build an image through their own individual acceleration. Accordingly, party leaders are less and less popular," he said.
Ray also assessed that Sjafrie's presence has the potential to add competitors for Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka. According to him, even though Gibran still has high electability, the emergence of new figures makes the competition map more intense.
"Even though his name is still perched as the highest-electable vice president, the presence of new individuals adds many candidates who are worthy of consideration by Prabowo. And that, in itself, makes Gibran's chances of being stuck," he explained.
On the other hand, Ray sees Sjafrie's candidacy as an opportunity as well as causing discomfort for President Prabowo Subianto. If paired with Prabowo, according to him, the combination of military background and minimal party base could be an obstacle. However, if not with Prabowo, Sjafrie's room for maneuver is considered to be narrowed.
"This could be a blessing but at the same time it could be a breaker of Prabowo-Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin," concluded Ray.
Meanwhile, the results of the latest survey by the Indonesian Public Institute (IPI) showed that a number of new faces entered the presidential candidate exchange 2029, including Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin.
"Based on our latest survey results, a number of new faces are on the presidential candidate exchange in 2029, such as Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, DKI Jakarta Governor Pramono Anung, North Maluku Governor Sherly Tjoanda, West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi to Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa," said IPI Researcher Abdan Sakura in a press conference in Semanggi, Jakarta, last Monday.
In the survey, Sjafrie was in seventh place with an electability of 7.5 percent. The top position was occupied by Prabowo Subianto with 22.3 percent, followed by Gibran Rakabuming Raka 12.2 percent, Ganjar Pranowo 9 percent, Anies Baswedan 8.5 percent, Pramono Anung 7.8 percent, and Dedi Mulyadi 7.9 percent.
Abdan explained that the emergence of new faces is inseparable from the factors of leadership, authority, track record, media publication, integrity, as well as vision and work programs.
"Figures such as Pramono Anung, Dedi Mulyadi, and Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin appear as potential figures who have received a fairly strong assessment of eligibility, although they have not yet been fully converted into electoral support," he said.
The IPI survey was held from January 30 to February 5, 2026, with 1,241 respondents aged 17-65 years in 35 provinces in Indonesia using the multistage random sampling method with a margin of error of 2.78 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
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