JAKARTA - The United States is working on intelligence showing Israel is preparing for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, as President Donald Trump's administration is working on a diplomatic deal with Tehran, several US officials with knowledge of the latest intelligence told CNN.
Such an attack would be a bold termination of relations with President Donald Trump, US officials said.
The attack also risks triggering a wider regional conflict in the Middle East, something the US has sought to avoid since the war in Gaza sparked tensions that began in 2023.
Officials warn it is not yet clear whether the Israeli leaders have made the final decision, in fact there is a deep disagreement in the US Administration on Israel's eventual plans to act.
However, "Israel's chances of attacking Iran's nuclear facilities have increased significantly in recent months," said another person familiar with US intelligence on the matter, quoted by CNN on May 21.
"And the prospect of a US-Iran deal negotiated by President Trump that does not erase all of Iran's uranium makes the chances of an attack even greater."
The growing concern stems not only from public and private messages from senior Israeli officials that they are considering the move, but also from Israeli communications intercepted and observations of Israeli military movements that could indicate an imminent attack, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.
Among the military preparations observed by the US are the movement of air ammunition and the completion of air exercises, the two sources said.
However, the same indicator could also be Israel's attempt to pressure Iran to abandon key principles of its nuclear program by signaling consequences if it does not underline the changing complexity facing the White House.
CNN has asked for comments from the National Security Council and the office of the Israeli Prime Minister. The Israeli Embassy in Washington did not comment.
Earlier, President Trump publicly threatened to carry out military action against Iran if his government's efforts to negotiate a new nuclear deal to limit or eliminate Tehran's nuclear program failed.
However, President Trump also set a time limit for how long the US will be involved in diplomatic efforts.
In a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in mid-March, Trump set a 60-day deadline for such efforts to succeed, according to sources familiar with the communications.
Now, it has been more than 60 days since the letter was delivered, and 38 days since the first round of negotiations began.
It has put Israel "between a rock and a difficult place," said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official specializing in the region.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure to avoid the US-Iran deal deemed unsatisfactory by Israel, as well as not to keep President Trump away who has cut ties with the Israeli prime minister over major security issues in the region.
"In the end, Israel's decision-making will be based on the determination of US policies and actions, and what agreements President Trump has reached or has not reached with Iran," Panikoff said, adding he believed PM Netanyahu would be willing to take full risk of damaging ties with Uncle Sam's country by launching an attack without at least US covert approval.
Meanwhile, US officials assessed Iran was in its weakest military position in decades, after Israel bombed its missile and air defense production facilities in October, combined with an economy that weakened due to sanctions and destruction of its strongest regional proxy by Israel. Israel.
The US itself is stepping up intelligence gatherings to prepare to help if Israeli leaders decide to attack, a senior US official told CNN. However, a source familiar with Trump's thinking said the US was unlikely to help Israel carry out attacks on Iran's current nuclear site, unless there was a major provocation by Tehran.
On the other hand, Israel does not have the capacity to destroy Iran's nuclear program without American aid, including refueling in the air and bombs needed to penetrate facilities deep underground, a need also reflected in previous US intelligence reports, according to a source familiar with the matter.
An Israeli source told CNN Israel would be ready to carry out its own military action if the US negotiated what this source described as "bad deal" with Israel's unacceptable Iran.
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"I think they most likely attacked to try and made the deal fail if they thought President Trump would accept a 'bad deal'," said another source with US intelligence.
"Israel is not ashamed to signal to us, both publicly and personally," he added.
A US intelligence assessment from February indicated Israel could use military aircraft or long-range missiles to exploit Iran's declining air defense capabilities, CNN previously reported.
But the same assessment also explains how such attacks will only hamper Iran's nuclear program a little bit and will not be a panacea.
"This is a real challenge for (PM) Netanyahu," said Panikoff.
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