The State Must Dare to Choose

On June 8, 2026, the rupiah broke through Rp18,000 per US dollar, an important limit for the market. The rupiah even touched around Rp18,190 per US dollar, the weakest point in the history of the rupiah trade, before receiving a stabilization response from Bank Indonesia.

On the same day, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), which reflects the rise and fall of stock prices on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, fell 4.52 percent to be in the range of 5,342.

The turmoil is not solely due to domestic factors. The war in the Middle East, the rise in world oil prices, and global economic uncertainty have also put pressure on the financial market. It must be admitted that the market often gives a sign sooner when there is something to be aware of.

The signal was responded to by Bank Indonesia. On June 9, 2026, the central bank took a rare step by raising the benchmark interest rate from 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent outside the regular meeting schedule. The benchmark interest rate is a benchmark that affects credit interest, savings interest, and the circulation of money in the economy.

Similar concerns were also expressed by economist and former Finance Minister Muhammad Chatib Basri. He reminded the government to be aware of the risk of rising prices due to the weakening of the rupiah.

According to Chatib Basri, exchange rate pressure can hit the lower middle class because the price of goods has the potential to rise. "One important issue that must be considered is the possibility of the risk of price increases due to the weakening of the rupiah," said Chatib Basri at the Presidential Palace Complex, Jakarta, Tuesday, June 9, 2026.

Another sign can be seen from the condition of the State Budget or APBN. Ministry of Finance data shows that in the 2026 State Budget, state revenues are targeted to reach IDR 3,153.6 trillion, while state spending reaches IDR 3,842.7 trillion.

With this condition, there is a difference of around IDR 689.1 trillion that must be covered through financing. The deficit reached 2.68 percent of gross domestic product or GDP, a measure of the total value of goods and services produced by Indonesia in one year.

The deficit is not something to be feared. Many countries use this instrument to finance development. The main thing is to ensure that every money spent generates real benefits for the community.

The pressure is also beginning to be seen in the APBN journey. Data from the Ministry of Finance's Kita APBN shows that as of May 2026, the APBN has a deficit of IDR 180.4 trillion or about 0.70 percent of GDP. The government stated that the fiscal condition is still under control. However, safe does not mean that there is no need to be vigilant.

Warnings also came from the World Bank. The institution estimates that Indonesia's economic growth in 2026 will be around 5 percent, lower than the government's target of 5.4 to 6 percent.

The World Bank assessed that the fiscal space or financial flexibility of the country is increasingly limited due to the large spending needs, increased energy subsidies due to rising world oil prices, and various global economic risks.

Confidence is certainly needed. A country cannot possibly advance without the courage to make big decisions. However, in managing the country, confidence must always be accompanied by the ability to read reality.

In economic history, many problems arise not because a country does not have big ambitions, but because it is too confident that all plans can run at once without reading the limits of the capabilities it has.

Economic pressure is also not only seen in reports and statistical figures. Because people feel it in their daily lives. The price of Pertamax rose from Rp. 12,300 to Rp. 16,250 per liter or about 32 percent. Annual inflation in May 2026 reached 3.08 percent, the highest in eight months.

For many families, the price increase is not just a statistical figure. The increase means more expensive commuting costs, increased school fees, and kitchen expenses that must be recalculated.

In the financial market, the sign is seen from the turmoil of the rupiah and the JCI. In the state budget, it is seen from the increasingly limited spending space. In households, pressure comes through rising living costs.

The three of them gave the same warning. When things like this happen, every decision must be carefully calculated.

In a situation like this, the question is not whether the government can have big dreams. Indonesia does need various breakthroughs through Free Nutritious Meals, People's Schools, Red and White Village Cooperatives, industrial downstreaming, food security, and various other strategic agendas.

But big dreams must be accompanied by the ability to make choices. Not all programs can run at the same speed. The government must determine which is the most urgent, which has the greatest benefit for the community, which needs to be improved, and which can wait.

The courage of a leader is not only measured by the number of programs announced. Courage is also seen from the willingness to evaluate, improve policies, and even delay plans that have not become the main need.

Caution is not a sign of fear. Discipline in managing state funds does not mean losing the courage to move forward. It is precisely the hallmark of a mature country, able to read warning signs early and make corrections before the problem becomes bigger.

Indonesia does not need panic. Indonesia needs vigilance, discipline, and the courage to determine priorities. In the end, the measure of a country's greatness lies not in the number of programs announced, but whether the people believe that their money is used correctly and provides real benefits for their lives.