Sumatra-Aceh Floods Predicted To Suppress National GDP To IDR 68.67 T

JAKARTA - The Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) estimates that the floods that hit the Sumatra and Aceh regions had a direct impact on the national economy.

Based on the CELIOS analysis, the flood caused a decline in the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to Rp68.67 trillion or around 0.29 percent.

CelIOS emphasized that the impact of flooding was not only felt in areas that were directly affected, but disruptions to the distribution of consumer goods and industrial needs in various provinces also weakened, considering that North Sumatra is one of the important industrial centers in the Sumatra region.

"When one area occurs a disaster to decide on transportation, the impact is not only in the province, but nationally it also has a negative impact," said BELIOS Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira in her official statement, quoted Tuesday, December 2.

Regionally, Aceh's economy is estimated to have suffered a loss of around Rp. 2.04 trillion, North Sumatra of Rp. 2.07 trillion, and West Sumatra around Rp. 2.01 trillion.

The calculation of the loss is based on several assumptions, namely: house damage which reaches Rp. 30 million per unit; bridge damage with an estimated rebuilding cost of around Rp. 1 billion per bridge; decreased family income based on the average daily income multiplied by 20 working days; loss of rice fields at a price of Rp. 6,500 per kg and 7 tons per hectare harvest; as well as road repair costs that reach Rp. 100 million for each 1,000 meters.

"When a natural disaster occurs, it will cut off the distribution route and cause trade to weaken. In addition, public consumption also weakens because there is no income during the disaster period," he explained.

Bhima added that this ecological disaster was triggered by land change due to deforestation for oil palm plantations and mining activities.

According to him, the contribution of the mining and palm oil sector to the regions, especially Aceh, is not proportional to the losses caused by the disaster.

Meanwhile, the national economic loss of IDR 68.6 trillion is greater than the contribution of PHT (Sales of Mining Products) revenue of IDR 16.6 trillion as of October 2025.

"Aceh lost Rp2.04 trillion, bigger than the Aceh mining PNBP of Rp929 billion until August 31, 2025," he said.

According to him, the contribution of the Revenue Sharing Fund (DBH) for the Aceh Province Palm Oil Plantation was IDR 12 billion in 2025 and the Minerba was IDR 56.3 billion, much smaller than the loss of IDR 2.04 trillion due to flooding.

Therefore, CelIOS encourages the government to immediately impose a moratorium on mining permits and expansion of oil palm plantations. The government is also asked to switch to a more sustainable and environmentally-oriented economic model.

"Without changes in economic structure, ecological disasters will repeat themselves with much greater economic losses," he added.