Extreme Weather Threatens Rice Production, Potential Harvest Failure Increases

JAKARTA - The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) warned of an increased risk of crop failure towards the end of 2025.

Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics, BPS Pudji Ismartini, said that extreme weather in recent months, including floods and natural disasters, has become the main trigger for increasing harvest potential failure.

"So the risk or potential for crop failure has the opportunity to increase towards the end of 2025, including in November and December 2025," he said during a press conference, Monday, December 1.

He explained that the floods and landslides that occurred in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra had disrupted agricultural areas, especially rice fields and land crops.

"Yang memiliki risiko yang lebih besar karena terkait cuaca ekstrem seperti adanya banjir kemudian juga bencana di beberapa wilayah seperti yang kita ketahui di Sumatra ada di Aceh, Sumatera Utara, Sumatra Barat dan wilayah lainnya," ujarnya.

Pudji added that BPS must extend field observations for the Area Sample Framework (KSA) survey in the three provinces due to significant disaster impacts.

"Also of course this also has an impact on agricultural land, especially rice fields and rice plants, so that currently an extension of KSA field observations is being carried out for the three affected areas and the size of the potential for crop failure in November will be delivered in January 2026," he said.

According to BPS estimates, the rice harvest area is projected to decrease until the end of the year, from 860 thousand hectares in October 2025, down to 600 thousand hectares in November, and back to 440 thousand hectares in December 2025.

Production of milled dry unhulled rice is also expected to decline from 4.72 million tons in October to 3.37 million tons in November 2025, and fall again to 2.47 million tons in December 2025.

In line with that, rice production is predicted to fall from 2.72 million tons in October 2025 to 1.95 million tons in November, and reach 1.42 million tons in December 2025. This estimate is based on the results of KSA Padi Amatian as of October 2025.