Economic Growth In The Third Quarter Of 2025 Is Slowing Down, The Government Is Asked To Accelerate Spending Realization

JAKARTA - Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 slowed down.

The government is asked to optimize spending so that the growth rate can increase by the end of the year.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reports that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.04 percent year on year (yoy) in the third quarter of 2025.

This achievement is lower than the second quarter of 2025 which recorded a growth of 5.12 percent (yoy).

While quarterly (quarter to quarter/qtq), economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 reached 1.43 percent, or slowed down compared to the previous quarter which grew 4.04 percent (QtQ).

Director of Economic Digital Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Nailul Huda, said the fourth quarter of 2025, would be key to the direction of national economic growth whether it was like the previous annual cycle, where the quarter was usually driven by government spending.

"The government should focus on restoring people's purchasing power. In the fourth quarter of 2024, household consumption growth is the highest during 2024. It's just a matter of how the government provides more economic stimulus to boost purchasing power," he explained in his statement, quoted Thursday, November 6.

Similarly, the Head of the Macroeconomic & Financial Market Research Department of Bank Permata, Faisal Rachman, estimates that national economic growth in 2025 will be in the historical average range in the last ten years, between 5.0 and 5.1 percent.

This projection is slightly lower than the government's target in the 2025 State Budget which is set at 5.2 percent.

"The GDP Indonesia growth prospects still face a number of challenges, so it is important to maintain an expansive economic policy, especially through accelerating government spending in productive sectors with high multiplier effects," he said in his statement, quoted Thursday, November 6.

Towards the end of the year, Faisal projects household consumption will strengthen as the labor market is improved and the inflation rate is controlled.

Meanwhile, he added that investment prospects are expected to remain positive, supported by market expectations of lowering global and domestic interest rates that can reduce financing costs while increasing investor confidence in expansion.

However, he stressed, this condition also has the potential to encourage increased imports, considering that most imported goods are raw materials and capital goods for production activities.

Furthermore, Faisal predicts that import growth will be higher than exports, which are still under pressure by global trade wars and China's economic slowdown. Even so, trade tensions began to show signs of easing as the United States government was more open to the negotiation process.

He added that the diversification of trading partners that Indonesia continues to strive for as well as the recovery of global commodity prices is expected to help support national export performance.

"Overall, we project that GDP 2025 growth will be in the range of 5.0'5.1 percent compared to 5.03 percent in 2024, this is a revision up from the previous projection which estimated growth to be slightly below 5 percent," he said.

Meanwhile, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto emphasized that the government will continue to take various additional steps so that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 can achieve the annual average target of 5.2 percent.

"Well, we need to make efforts in the fourth quarter, we have to increase the economy again so that an average of 5.2 percent can be achieved," he said.

Airlangga also highlighted household consumption which grew 4.95 percent (yoy), slightly slower than the previous quarter of 4.97 percent (yoy).

He ensured that the government had prepared various fiscal stimuli to maintain people's purchasing power.

"The stimulus is sufficient because we have calculated the additional stimulus of Rp. 30 trillion. Then KUR still has Rp. 50 trillion. So, we can still push it. Yesterday we signed the contract for 800,000 KUR. Now, 800,000 if the average is Rp. 50 million, it means Rp. 40 trillion So, in line with the Rp. 50 trillion that we want to disburse," he said.

Similarly, Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa conveyed that the development of economic activity at the beginning of the fourth quarter, which was still expansionary plus policy strategies in the last quarter of this year, is believed to be able to maintain economic growth in 2025 according to the target.

"Fiscal support is also provided through the prudent placement of Rp200 trillion in state treasury to ensure adequate economic liquidity, including non-fiscal support for debottlenecking for the sake of sustainable higher investment realization," he said.

According to him, efforts to maintain purchasing power and support the performance of the business world continue to be carried out by optimizing spending through the stimulus program of IDR 34.2 trillion and 8 acceleration programs worth IDR 15.7 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Purbaya added that investment and higher-value exports were strengthened through Danantara's role in leveraging the contribution of the private sector, as well as debottlenecking with the establishment of a Task Force for the Acceleration of Government Strategic Programs (P2SP Task Force).

Dia menambahkan, dengan perkembangan data terkini, ditambah upaya optimalisasi peran fiskal sebagai enabler aktivitas ekonomi dan kebijakan nonfiskal untuk iklim usaha lebih baik, pemerintah optimistis ekonomi untuk keseluruhan tahun 2025 akan mencapai target 5,2 persen.

“Ke depan, Pemerintah terus mendorong agar mesin pertumbuhan ekonomi berjalan lebih cepat. Kebijakan fiskal, sektor keuangan, dan iklim investasi yang sehat akan terus disinergikan untuk menciptakan pertumbuhan tinggi. Tidak hanya tinggi, namun juga stabil dan dapat menciptakan pemerataan kesejahteraan masyarakat yang berkelanjutan,“ tutupnya.

He added, with the latest data developments, plus efforts to optimize fiscal roles as an enabler of economic activity and non-fiscal policy for a better business climate, the government is optimistic that the economy for the entire year 2025 will achieve the 5.2 percent target.

In the future, the Government will continue to encourage the engine of economic growth to run faster. Fiscal policies, the financial sector, and a healthy investment climate will continue to be synergized to create high growth. Not only high, but also stable and can create a sustainable equitable distribution of people's welfare," he concluded.