Year-End Discounts Make Consumption Soar, Devices Become The Main Target

JAKARTA - Public consumption activities are expected to increase in the fourth quarter of 2025. Based on Mandiri Lending Index (MSI) as of October 19, 2025, the level of domestic consumption continues to show strengthening at the beginning of the last quarter of this year, along with increased consumer confidence and improving spending on durable goods.

A report published by Bank Mandiri's Office of Chief Economist noted that the MSI index reached 290.5, an increase of 2.3 percent weekly (week-on-week/WoW), continuing growth in the previous week of 2.9 percent.

Annually (year-on-year/YoY), the average expenditure growth during the first three weeks of October was recorded at 34.5 percent, much higher than the third quarter of 2025 average of only 28.7 percent.

"In the future, we estimate that the combination of increasing public trust, various year-end discount programs carried out by retailers, and government stimulus support, will encourage higher public spending in the fourth quarter of 2025," the report said, quoted on Sunday, November 2.

The report also assessed that the increase in consumption in October was the starting point for the recovery of household spending.

The Mandiri Institute noted that MSI's monthly growth in its early year position had slowed down in the third quarter of 2025, from 23 percent in July, down to 17 percent in August, and 14 percent in September. But now, growth has increased again to 29 percent.

The increase in consumption in October was mainly supported by an increase in spending on durable goods which grew by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month.

Meanwhile, the essential goods group, which has the largest portion of spending, is 17.6 percent, still shows stable growth of 1.4 percent WoW.

The increase in consumption of durable goods is also reflected in the surge in mobile phone or device spending which grew 7.8 percent WoW, followed by electronic devices of 7.6 percent and household appliances of 5.9 percent.

The Mandiri Institute reports that the most significant increase in gadget spending occurred in Generation Z and Millennials, with growth of 339 percent YoY and 210 percent YoY respectively in the September period of October 2025. This surge is related to the launch of a number of new products such as the iPhone 17 and Vivo X300.

In terms of region, increased consumption occurred in almost all of Indonesia. Sulawesi recorded the highest weekly growth of 4.2 percent, followed by Bali's Southeast Nusa Tenggara (2.6 percent), Kalimantan (2.5 percent), Java (2.3 percent), Sumatra (1.7 percent), and Maluku' Papua (1.4 percent).

Especially in Kalimantan, the increase in spending has been driven by an increase in coal prices since early September 2025, while in Bali, Southeast Nusa Tenggara, public spending remains strong in line with the peak tourist season.

The MSI report also shows differences in consumption behavior between income groups. Low-income groups are still focused on basic needs, while the middle class shows a combination of essential spending and lifestyle, indicating an impulsive trend of spending.

The high-income groups began to increase spending on durable goods, showing stronger consumption optimism.

In line with that, the movement of the savings index as of September 30, 2025 was recorded at 72.8 for the lower class, 101.1 for the middle class, and 94.4 for the upper group.