Being At A Critical Point, The Rupiah Is Predicted To Reach IDR 16,750 Per US Dollar
JAKARTA - President Commissioner of HFX International Futures Sutopo Widodo said that for trading on Thursday, September 25, 2025, the movement of the rupiah exchange rate will still face a number of challenges.
According to him, the market focus is expected to be focused on the release of PCE Price Index data from the United States (US), which is the main indicator of inflation and an important reference for the Federal Reserve (The Fed) interest rate policy.
"If this data shows inflation remains high, the expectations of the Fed's reduction in interest rates will decrease, potentially strengthening the dollar and pressing the Rupiah further. However, if the data is surprising with lower numbers, the Rupiah could get a little bit of room to breathe," he told VOI, Thursday, September 25.
He added that in a situation like this, consistent intervention from Bank Indonesia is expected to remain an important factor in maintaining market stability, containing volatility, and preventing too sharp weakening of the Rupiah.
Sutopo said that taking into account various complex global and domestic sentiments, the movement of the rupiah exchange rate is estimated against the US dollar on Thursday, September 25, which will move in the range of Rp. 16,650 per US dollar to Rp. 16,750 per US dollar.
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According to him, this movement really depends on how the market responds to US inflation data as well as the monetary policy taken next.
He added that this condition reflects the position of the Rupiah, which is currently at a crossroads, adrift between expectations for domestic economic growth and pressure from the dynamics of a global economy full of uncertainty.
To note, citing Bloomberg, on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, the rupiah spot exchange rate closed higher by 0.02 percent to the level of Rp. 16,684 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.26 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,680 per US dollar.