Rupiah Potentially Strengthens To Level IDR 16,370 Per US Dollar

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Tuesday, September 16 is expected to move higher against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Monday, September 15, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.25 percent to the level of Rp. 16,416 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.09 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,405 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that the latest data from the United States provided many reasons for the Fed to start loosening its monetary policy.

"Consumer Price Index (JCI) in August confirmed that main inflation is still a little high, but a wider narrative shows a slowing economy," he said in his statement, quoted Tuesday, September 16.

Ibrahim conveyed that employment data also shows that this weakening is reflected in the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in August almost stagnant, while previous job growth data was revised significantly.

In addition, he said early unemployment claims in the last week had risen to a high in recent years, and price pressures at the producer level began to ease.

Overall, he said the indicators eased inflation concerns that the Fed had been afraid of, while highlighting the increasing risk of job reduction.

Therefore, Ibrahim said that the Fed's 25 basis points cut in interest rates this week is almost certain to occur.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that Indonesia's economic growth is estimated to slow down in the third quarter of 2025 due to the low government spending factor.

In addition, trade performance, especially export net, is expected to decline, and export performance will peak only until August 2025 because entrepreneurs carry out front loading before the implementation of import rates by the President of the United States (US) Donald Trump.

However, the economy will turn around in the fourth quarter of 2025, optimistic that it will grow in line with the absorption of incentives and stimulus provided by the government.

As for the second quarter of 2025, economic growth shot up above expectations of almost various groups, namely up to 5.12 percent (yoy) in the middle of a wave of layoffs and others. Previously, the government had targeted economic growth throughout 2025 to reach 5.2 percent (yoy).

In addition, the public does not need to be afraid if the growth target is not achieved, because fiscal policies can still support the acceleration of development, because the remaining government's More Budget Balance (SAL) is still quite large. Even though it is worth Rp. 200 trillion, it has been transferred from Bank Indonesia (BI) to five hebara. The goal is to spur real sector loans.

Then, the government has prepared a stimulus package, currently the government has compiled several incentive packages that will be disbursed until the end of the year. However, the value has not been confirmed.

Meanwhile, several programs that are being prepared by the government to spur the economy include expanding the target sector for income tax incentives article 21 (PPh 21) borne by the government (DTP). The tax exemption incentive currently only applies to workers in the labor-intensive sector with a salary of under Rp. 10 million per month.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close higher in trading on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,370 - IDR 16,420 per US dollar.