Rupiah Potentially Weakens To Level Rp16,450 Per US Dollar

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Wednesday, September 3 is expected to move lower against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Tuesday, September 2, the rupiah spot exchange closed higher by 0.03 percent to the level of Rp. 16,414 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed up 0.27 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,418 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that uncertainty regarding the trade rates imposed by President Trump was increasing, following an appeals court ruling declaring the tariff illegal.

Despite this, the court allowed the tariff to remain in effect until mid-October and Trump responded to the ruling with strong criticism and stated that it would file a lawsuit to the Supreme Court.

"This development has sparked increased uncertainty over the economic impact of Trump's tariff, most of which came into effect in August. Any ruling against the tariff will also force Washington to negotiate a new deal with key trading partners," he said in a statement, quoted Wednesday, September 3.

On the other hand, market participants expect a nearly 85 percent chance of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve in September, according to the CME Fedwatch and this happens even as PCE price index data for July shows inflation remains stagnant and continues to rise above the Fed's annual target of 2 percent.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that the Central Statistics Agency noted that Indonesia's Trade Balance in July 2025 recorded a surplus of 4.17 billion US dollars. This value increased compared to the surplus in June 2025 of 4.10 billion US dollars.

Bank Indonesia (BI) views that the trade balance surplus in July 2025 was positive to support the external resilience of the Indonesian economy further.

Meanwhile, the higher trade balance surplus in July 2025 mainly came from an increasing non-oil and gas trade balance surplus.

In the future, Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen policy synergies with the government and other authorities to increase external resilience and support sustainable national economic growth.

This is in line with non-oil and gas exports which increased to US$23.81 billion, the positive performance of non-oil and gas exports was mainly supported by exports based on natural resources such as mineral fuels as well as animal/vegetable fats and oils as well as exports of manufacturing products such as machinery and mechanical equipment as well as its parts as iron and steel.

Based on destination countries, non-oil and gas exports to China, the United States, and India remain the main contributors to Indonesia's exports. The oil and gas trade balance deficit increased to US$1.58 billion in July 2025 in line with the increase in oil and gas imports amid the decline in oil and gas exports.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but closed lower in trading on Wednesday, September 3, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,400 - IDR 16,450 per US dollar.