Bank Mandiri Reveals Global Uncertainty Still About Geopolitical Volatility And Risk

JAKARTA - Bank Mandiri Treasury & International Banking Director Ari Rizaldi said that throughout this year challenges in the global market continue, with various sources of volatility coming from various parts of the world.

According to him, global economic conditions and financial markets are still shrouded in uncertainty, especially those related to the reciprocal tariff policy from the United States and geopolitical instability in a number of areas.

"Although we see that President Trump's tariff decision has been taken by achieving a trade agreement, the new phase actually begins when the market is currently anticipating the impact of the US import rate," he said at the Mandiri Macro and Market Brief 3Q25 Indonesia Economic Outlook event, Thursday, August 28.

He added that market volatility is expected to continue, while concerns over the weakening of global economic growth are also increasing.

Ari said that one of his main concerns at this time was the Fed's decision regarding the benchmark interest rate.

"Currently, of course, what we have been waiting for is when the Fed will start to trim its benchmark interest rates again. Well, decisions that are not easy to make because we see the Fed facing a situation where US economic data itself has not conclusively been in the range they are targeting. Especially if we look at US inflation, which is expected to be still high because of the impact of tariff implementation in the second semester of course," he explained.

On the other hand, Ari said that consumers in the US really need easing interest rates to ease the burden of living expenses.

"So even though it is still full of uncertainty, if we look at the market consensus to date, we think that the Fed's probability to cut the benchmark interest rate to 4.25 percent is already 89 percent," he said.

He added that the Fed's policy guide had not changed, where the target of cutting the Fed Funds Rate twice was 4 percent by the end of 2025.