Rupiah Projected Weakening To Rp16,320 Per US Dollar Amid Global Dynamics

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Wednesday, August 13 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Tuesday, August 12, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.06 percent to the level of Rp. 16,290 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.28 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,298 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that global sentiment currently also affects the movement of the rupiah, one of which is the decision of the United States and China to extend the tariff ceasefire for 90 days. This step aims to prevent a spike in import duties that could disrupt the flow of global trade.

"This agreement maintains the current US tariff of 30 percent and China's 10 percent and gives time for further negotiations, which provides encouragement for investor sentiment throughout the region," he said in his statement, quoted Wednesday, August 13.

On the other hand, Ibrahim also highlighted the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska, which is scheduled to take place Friday to discuss resolving the conflict in Ukraine.

He said the meeting came after Trump threatened to impose strict sanctions on the Russian oil industry, as well as impose a high tariff on India and China, two major Russian oil buyers.

"Ukraine has signaled it will reject any agreement requiring it to hand over its territory to Russia. However, the deescalation of the conflict has the potential to free up Russian oil shipments, which in turn will increase global supply," he stressed.

In addition, Trump charges up to 50 percent of India, and threatens China with similar measures.

According to him, global oil supply could be hampered by India and China's efforts to find alternative sources, although concerns over the scenario eased ahead of the meeting.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that Bank Indonesia (BI) predicts retail sales performance will increase in July 2025. The Real Sales Index (IPR) in July 2025 is predicted to experience growth of 4.8 percent year on year (yoy), higher than the growth in the previous month, reaching the level of 222.5.

The increase mainly comes from the spare parts and accessories group, food, beverages, tobacco, and motor vehicle fuel.

On a monthly basis, it is estimated that retail sales in July 2025 recorded a contraction of 4.0 percent (mtm), influenced by the decline in sales of information and communication equipment groups as well as food, beverages, and tobacco.

In June 2025, IPR was recorded at 231.9 or an annual growth of 1.3 percent (yoy), lower than growth in May 2025 of 1.9 percent (yoy).

This growth was driven by the sales performance of the motor vehicle fuel group, food, beverages, and tobacco, cultural and recreational goods, and the clothing subgroup which grew positively.

The sales performance of several groups of goods related to holiday and leave activities with the HBKN and school holidays, has succeeded in supporting the performance of June 2025 to be better than the previous month.

This is reflected in retail sales in June 2025 which monthly recorded a contraction of 0.2 percent (mtm), smaller than the contraction of 1.3 percent (mtm) in May 2025.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but closed lower in trading on Wednesday, August 13, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,280 - IDR 16,320 per US dollar.