Donald Trump's Decision Waiting Market, Rupiah Is Predicted To Weaken Rp16,320 Per US Dollar

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Tuesday, August 12 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Monday, August 11, the rupiah spot exchange closed up 0.08 percent to the level of Rp. 16,280 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed up 0.28 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,253 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that the US-Chingkok tariff ceasefire, which has controlled the increase in import duties, will end on August 12.

"Although the market hopes this ceasefire will be extended, uncertainty regarding the outcome will continue," he said in a statement, quoted Tuesday, August 12.

In addition, Ibrahim said the spike in Chinese exports last week, which was reported at 7.2 percent year-on-year (yoy) for July, showed exporters rushing to deliver goods before potential new rates.

In addition, the US implemented a new reciprocal rate on August 7, which targets goods from countries with import duties of up to 50 percent.

Ibrahim also said there was hope for a possible end to sanctions limiting Russia's oil supply to the international market to increase after US President Donald Trump said he would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate the end of the war in Ukraine.

"These negotiations follow increasing US pressure on Russia, which increases the possibility that sanctions against Moscow could also be tightened if a peace agreement is not reached. Trump set a deadline last Friday for Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, to approve peace or its oil buyers will face secondary sanctions," he said.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Indonesia's economic growth in 2025 to increase again, to 4.8 percent in the latest publication in July 2025 or a slight increase of 0.1 point percent from the previous projection of 4.7 percent.

He said that the IMF revision was also in line with the increase in the projected world economic growth, which in 2025 will be 3 percent, up 0.2 points percent, and in 2026 it will reach 3.1 percent, up 0.1 points percent compared to the April 2025 projection.

According to the IMF, the increase was driven by higher demand than previously thought, one of which was due to anticipation of higher rates, the average Trump tariff, which fell compared to the April 2025 announcement, improving financial conditions, weakening the US dollar, to fiscal expansion in a number of major jurisdictions.

He said that so far, the reciprocal tariff for Indonesia has fallen to 19 percent, after previously being announced at 32 percent in April 2025.

Meanwhile, the decline is the result of negotiations between the two heads of state and a number of requirements that must be met, such as tariff-free for export products from the US, Indonesia will buy US$15 billion worth of energy products and agricultural products worth US$4.5 billion, plus 50 units of Boeing aircraft, the majority of the 777 series.

The IMF considers that the current geopolitical tensions can weaken economic growth, disrupt global supply chains, and increase commodity prices.

Even so, the projected global economic growth is currently expected to increase as long as there are policies that are able to create trust, predictability, and sustainability in reducing tensions and maintaining price stability.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading on Tuesday, August 12, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,270 - IDR 16,320 per US dollar.