The Performance Of Agriculture In The Second Quarter Of 2025 Is Not As High As The Government's Claims

JAKARTA Agricultural observer from the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE), Eliza Mardian assessed that the agricultural sector should no longer be the main support for national economic growth in the second quarter of 2025.

This is because the growth of the agricultural sector in the second quarter of 2025 on an annual basis (year-on-year/yoy) is only 1.65 percent. This is in contrast to the report of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) which calls the agricultural sector one of the backbones of the national economy.

"The agricultural sector in the second quarter of 2025 has relatively small growth compared to the second quarter of 2024, only 1.65 percent (yoy). If you want to compare relatively similar conditions, you should use year-on-year data," he said when contacted by VOI, Wednesday, August 6.

He explained that YoY-based analysis is more appropriate to use for the agricultural sector because it is able to eliminate seasonal effects, provide an overview of long-term trends, and is relevant to policymaking and development planning.

On the other hand, Eliza's quarterly growth in the agricultural sector (quarter-to-quarter/qtq) admits that it looks high, reaching 13.54 percent compared to the first quarter of 2025. However, according to him, the growth was driven by seasonal factors.

"The agricultural sector on a qtq basis is indeed high, in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2025 it reached 13.54 percent, but if this qtq has seasonal factors, where in the second quarter, commodity prices usually increase relatively due to entering the second main harvest, the supply is relatively small, raising prices," explained Eliza.

Eliza explained that the surge in the agricultural sector that occurred in the first quarter of 2025 was due to a combination of low base effect and price policy.

"So when compared to yoy, the agricultural sector's growth is not high enough. The reason for the first quarter of 2025 is the first low base effect. In the first quarter of 2024, there is an effect of El Nino reducing the number of productions. In addition, starting in the first quarter of 2025, the government increased the purchase price of harvest dry unhulled rice to Rp. 6,500 per kg, of course this provides a big leverage for the agricultural sector when in the first quarter," he explained.

He added that the increase in the prices of several export plantation commodities contributed to the increase in the added value of the agricultural sector in the first quarter. "The increase in the price of unhulled rice and several exported plantation commodities also increased the added value of this sector so that it is very natural for the agricultural sector to become a support in the 1-2025 quarter," continued Eliza.

However, according to Eliza, after these factors passed, the growth of the agricultural sector weakened again. "In the second quarter of 2025, the agricultural sector will no longer support growth because there are no conditions like the first quarter," she said.

Previously, BPS noted that the national economy grew 5.12 percent on an annual basis (yoy) and 4.04 percent on a quarterly basis (qtq). In the midst of global uncertainty, the agricultural sector is referred to as the backbone of the national economy.

In terms of production, agricultural, forestry and fishery business fields in the second quarter of 2025 recorded the highest growth of 13.53 percent, compared to the previous quarter which only recorded 9.74 percent.

The contribution of this sector to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached 13.83 percent, making it the second largest sector after the processing industry.

Increased agricultural production is driven by various strategic government policies such as accelerating planting, pumping programs, and increasing the allocation of subsidized fertilizers.