Coordinating Minister Airlangga Denies Government Manipulation Of Economic Growth Data Quarter II 2025

JAKARTA - Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto firmly denied allegations that Indonesia's economic growth data of 5.12 percent in the second quarter of 2025 had been manipulated.

"Where is there (data/data manipulation game)," he told the media crew, Tuesday, August 5.

He emphasized that this figure is a condition on the ground and is supported by various strong economic indicators, such as growth in household consumption which is almost 5 percent is one of the main indicators.

"If we look at consumer consumption, it grows high. Around 4.97 percent and it represents 54 percent (GDP)," he said.

In addition to consumption, he also highlighted the increase in investment which reached 6.99 percent, economic activity in the retail sector, the use of electronic money, and the growth of digital businesses also showed a positive trend.

"Then investment grew 6.99 percent. Then transactions in retail increased. Electronic money was 6.26 percent. Then the marketplace grew quarter to quarter 7.5 percent," he said.

Airlangga also said that the tourism sector also contributed significantly, where increased community mobility through air, land, and rail transportation encouraged domestic travel growth and tourist visits.

"That's a tourist trip, the archipelago grew 22.3 percent. Foreign tourists grew 23.32 percent," he said.

In terms of employment, he said nearly 3.6 million jobs were created in the February to February period.

However, Airlangga was reluctant to mention that people's purchasing power had fully recovered and only referred to the performance of a number of retail issuers as an overview.

"We'll just look at public companies in the retail sector. That's one semester. Is it, I don't mention it. But there are those in the modern market sector. There is a retail sector in the mall. That's from three, all of the semesters have improved," he explained.

However, not all parties immediately accepted the government's claim regarding 5.12 percent economic growth.

Director of the Digital Economy Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Nailul Huda also highlighted Indonesia's economic growth rate of 5.12 percent in the second quarter of 2025 which was considered full of irregularities.

"I do not believe the data submitted (BPS) represents the actual economic condition," he told VOI, Tuesday, August 5.

He revealed that there were at least three points of irregularity that were in the spotlight, namely the first related to higher economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter which had a Ramadan-Lebaran moment.

Huda said that economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 was recorded at 5.12 percent, higher than the first quarter which only grew 4.87 percent, even though the first quarter had a moment of Ramadan and Eid which usually boosted economic activity significantly.

According to Huda, this contradicts the pattern of previous years, where the quarter with the moment of Ramadan-Lebaran always recorded the highest growth.

Huda assessed that the growth of the manufacturing industry is not in line with the manufacturing indicator where the manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing processing industry grew 5.68 percent in the second quarter of 2025, much higher than in the previous quarter and this figure is not in line with the Indonesian manufacturing Purchasing Managers' (PMI) data which was below 50 during the April 'June 2025 period.

"This means that the company does not expand (production increase) significantly. In addition, the condition of the manufacturing industry is also deteriorating, with one of the leading indicators being the number of layoffs which increased by 32 percent (YoY) during the January-June period," he said.

Huda added that household consumption only grew 4.96 percent in the second quarter of 2025, or almost stagnant compared to the first quarter of 4.95 percent.

Household consumption accounts for about 50 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and no significant moment can explain this surge in consumption.

"House consumption (RT) only grew 4.96 percent. By donating to 50 percent of GDP, it seems odd because the growth in RT in the first quarter of 2025 is only 4.95 percent but economic growth is at 4.87 percent. There is no moment that makes the increase in household consumption increase sharply," he said.

Furthermore, Huda added, the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) actually decreased from 121.1 in March to 117.8 in June 2025.

Sementara itu, meski Pembentukan Modal Tetap Bruto (PMTB) meningkat 6,99 persen, hal ini juga tidak sejalan dengan tren PMI manufaktur yang tetap berada di bawah batas ekspansi.

Huda menegaskan, ketidaksinkronan antara data pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan berbagai indikator utama (leading indicators) membuat dirinya meragukan keakuratan data yang dirilis oleh Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS).

"BPS harusnya menjadi badan yang mengedepankan informasi data yang akurat tanpa ada intervensi pemerintah. BPS harus menjelaskan secara detail metodologi yang digunakan, termasuk indeks untuk menarik angka nilai tambah bruto sektoral dan juga pengeluaran," tegasnya.

Meanwhile, although the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (PMTB) increased by 6.99 percent, this is also not in line with the manufacturing PMI trend which remains below the expansion limit.

Huda emphasized that the inconsistency between economic growth data and various main indicators (leading indicators) made him doubt the accuracy of the data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS).

"BPS should be an agency that prioritizes accurate data information without any government intervention. BPS must explain in detail the methodology used, including the index to attract sectoral gross added value figures and also expenses," he said.