This Economist Does Not Believe That The Indonesian Economy In The Second Quarter Of 2025 Will Grow 5.12 Percent

JAKARTA - Director of the Digital Economy Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Nailul Huda also highlighted Indonesia's economic growth rate of 5.12 percent in the second quarter of 2025 which was considered full of irregularities.

"I DON'T BELIEVE in the data submitted (BPS) representing the actual economic condition," he told VOI, Tuesday, August 5.

He revealed that there were at least three points of irregularity that were in the spotlight, namely the first related to higher economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter which had a Ramadan-Lebaran moment.

Huda said that economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 was recorded at 5.12 percent, higher than the first quarter which only grew 4.87 percent, even though the first quarter had a moment of Ramadan and Eid which usually boosted economic activity significantly.

According to Huda, this contradicts the pattern of previous years, where the quarter with the moment of Ramadan-Lebaran always recorded the highest growth.

Hida considers that the growth of the manufacturing industry is not in line with the manufacturing indicator where the manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing industry grew 5.68 percent in the second quarter of 2025, much higher than the previous quarter and this figure is not in line with Indonesia's Purchasing Managers' (PMI) data which was below 50 during the April 'June 2025 period.

"This means that the company does not expand (production increase) significantly. In addition, the condition of the manufacturing industry is also deteriorating, with one of the leading indicators being the number of layoffs which increased by 32 percent (YoY) during the January-June period," he said.

Huda added that household consumption only grew 4.96 percent in the second quarter of 2025, or almost stagnant compared to the first quarter of 4.95 percent.

He explained that household consumption contributed about 50 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and there were no significant moments that could explain this surge in consumption.

"House consumption (RT) only grew 4.96 percent. By donating to 50 percent of GDP, it seems odd because the growth in RT in the first quarter of 2025 is only 4.95 percent but economic growth is at 4.87 percent. There is no moment that makes the increase in household consumption increase sharply," he said.

In addition, he added that the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) actually decreased from 121.1 in March to 117.8 in June 2025. Meanwhile, although the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (PMTB) increased by 6.99 percent, this is also not in line with the manufacturing PMI trend which remains below the expansion limit.

Huda emphasized that the inconsistency between economic growth data and various main indicators (leading indicators) made him doubt the accuracy of the data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS).

"BPS should be an agency that prioritizes accurate data information without any government intervention. BPS must explain in detail the methodology used, including the index to attract sectoral gross added value figures and also expenses," he said.