Apple Falls, US Tariffs And AI Delays Threaten IPhone Celebration!

JAKARTA - Apple, long considered the safest stake among tech giants, faces revenue reports on Thursday 30 July with business pressure from US tariffs, intense competition in China, and a late-time high-risk artificial intelligence (AI) race.

Wall Street estimates the company's revenue will rise 4.2% in the April-June quarter to 89.34 billion US dollars. However, attention is focused on how Apple will adapt to the landscape that turns its global supply chain, which has been a force, into a potential liability.

US President Donald Trump is targeting the consumer electronics giant because its dependence on foreign manufacturing threatens a 25% tariff on foreign-made iPhones. To limit losses, Apple moved iPhone production for the US market to India, which actually sparked Trump's anger.

According to research firm Canalys, the total volume of Indian-made smartphones jumped 240% in the second quarter, largely driven by Apple's supply chain changes. Analysts and investors are now estimating this strategy will help Apple limit the tariff impact well below the estimated 900 million US dollars estimated in May.

"iPhone is a very well-known product that the Chinese and US governments understand as a means of negotiation," said DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria. "Until the tariff is set, Apple is at risk of being hit by current trade disputes."

Analysts also say that Apple, like many other companies, may overestimate tariff fees for providing space for a surprise income.

"Most of the companies we monitor make conservative assumptions by overestimating tariff fees because the general management goal is to beat their own guides," said Jamie Meyers, senior analyst at Laffer Tengler Investments, Apple's shareholder.

iPhone sales are expected to rise 2.2% in Apple's third fiscal quarter, according to LSEG data, supported by increased demand in China, Apple's third-largest market. In the second fiscal quarter, iPhone sales increased 1.9%.

Counterpoint Research data shows iPhone sales in the world's largest smartphone market surged 8% this quarter, driven by large discounts during the 618 shopping festival, government-backed exchange subsidies, and targeted promotions for the iPhone 16 Pro.

Sales of other Apple devices are expected to slow down in the April-June period, while revenue from the fastest growing segment of the service in recent years is expected to rise 10.7%. In the January-March period, service revenue grew 11.6%.

However, doubts still surround Apple's prospects in China, where domestic companies such as Honor launched smartphones with AI features such as generative AI-based photo editors. Apple's careful approach to AI has sparked concerns that the company is absent from the industry's biggest growing wave in decades.

Apple has been slow to launch a series of Apple Intelligence, including the integration of ChatGPT, while the long-awaited AI update for Siri has been postponed until next year.