Trump Cuts Indonesia's Tariffs To 19 Percent, Celios Economist Reminds This Threat

JAKARTA - The Indonesian government has reached an agreement with the President of the United States (US) Donald Trump to impose a 19 percent import rate on products from Indonesia.

The agreement was reached after Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto made a phone call with Trump regarding the import rate on Tuesday, July 15.

So, what will be the impact on Indonesia after the import rate is implemented?

Economist from the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara assessed that the reduction in US import duty rates on Indonesian export products could pose a threat in the future.

According to Bhima, the government needs to be aware of an increase in imports of US goods.

"The 19 percent tariff for Indonesian export goods to the US, while the US can get 0 percent facility, actually has a high risk for Indonesia's trade balance," Bhima told VOI, Friday, July 18.

One of the sectors that is considered the most potential to be affected is food, especially wheat.

Bhima is of the view that the US will greatly benefit from the export of wheat to Indonesia because the entrance fee is free.

This is believed to disrupt the government's efforts to realize national food self-sufficiency.

"Consumers may be happy that the price of instant noodles and bread will fall, but local food producers will be affected by the negative impact," he said.

Furthermore, Bhima also reminded, throughout 2024, the import value of five main types of products from the US, namely oil and gas, pharmaceutical products, cerelia and wheat, aircraft spare parts and electronic products has exceeded the figure of 5.37 billion US dollars or around Rp. 87.3 trillion.

Thus, said Bhima, in the future there will be the potential for an increase in imports from the US which is believed to erode Indonesia's trade balance surplus.

"Don't depend too much on exports to the US because the results of tariff negotiations still harm Indonesia's position," he said.

Previously, US President Donald Trump announced that his party had reached a trade agreement with Indonesia.

Dalam kesepakatan tersebut, barang-barang asal Indonesia akan dikenakan tarif sebesar 19 persen, sementara ekspor dari AS ke Indonesia tidak akan dikenakan pajak.

"Indonesia akan membayar Amerika Serikat tarif 19 persen untuk semua barang yang mereka ekspor kepada kami, sementara ekspor AS ke Indonesia akan bebas hambatan tarif dan non-tarif," tulis Trump melalui akun @realDonaldTrump di media sosial Truth Social pada Selasa, 16 Juli 2025.

Trump menyampaikan, kesepakatan itu sebagai perjanjian bersejarah yang dicapai setelah berbicara langsung dengan Presiden Prabowo Subianto.

Dia mengeklaim, kesepakatan penting tersebut membuat AS dapat membuka seluruh akses ke pasar Indonesia dan menjadikannya untuk pertama kali dalam sejarah.

Selain itu, sebagai bagian dari kesepakatan tersebut, Trump mengatakan Indonesia juga berkomitmen untuk berinvestasi terhadap sejumlah produk Amerika.

"Sebagai bagian dari perjanjian tersebut, Indonesia telah berkomitmen untuk membeli 15 miliar dolar AS dalam energi AS, 4,5 miliar dolar AS dalam produk pertanian Amerika dan 50 jet boeing, banyak di antaranya adalah 777," jelas dia.

In the agreement, goods from Indonesia will be charged a tariff of 19 percent, while exports from the US to Indonesia will not be taxed.

"Indonesia will pay the United States a 19 percent tariff for all the goods they export to us, while US exports to Indonesia will be free of tariff barriers and non-tariffs," Trump wrote via the @realDonaldTrump account on Truth Social social media on Tuesday, July 16, 2025.

Trump said the deal was a historic agreement reached after speaking directly with President Prabowo Subianto.

Dia mengeklaim, kesepakatan penting tersebut membuat AS dapat membuka seluruh akses ke pasar Indonesia dan menjadikannya untuk pertama kali dalam sejarah.

- https://voi.id/ekonomi/496498/hutama-karya-catat-900-000-kendaraan-nikmati-insentif-potongan-tarif-di-tol-trans-sumatera

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- https://voi.id/ekonomi/496497/indeks-manufaktur-tumbuh-melambat-pada-kuartal-ii-2025

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He claimed that this important agreement allowed the US to open all access to the Indonesian market and make it the first time in history.

In addition, as part of the deal, Trump said Indonesia is also committed to investing in a number of American products.

"As part of the agreement, Indonesia has committed to buying 15 billion US dollars in US energy, 4.5 billion US dollars in American agricultural products and 50 boeing jets, many of which are 777," he explained.