Rupiah Potentially Weakening, Sentiment Of US Inflation And Tariff Data Becomes A Highlight

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Tuesday, July 15 is expected to move lower against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Monday, July 14, the rupiah spot exchange rate closed down 0.20 percent to the level of Rp. 16,250 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed lower by 0.16 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,247 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that US President Donald Trump last weekend announced a 30 percent tariff for Mexico and the European Union, the latest of a series of tariffs announced over the past week.

"Trump's tariff will be effective from August 1, thus providing limited time for key economies to finalize more trade deals with Washington," he said in a statement, quoted Tuesday, July 15.

Later, Trump indicated that he would not extend the August 1 deadline and over the past week have announced tariffs for several other major economies, including 25 percent import duty for Japan and South Korea, 50 percent tariff for Brazil, and a 50 percent tariff for copper imports.

In addition, Trump will send offensive weapons ( patriot missile defense system) to Ukraine to help him in a long-running war.

"This happened after Trump last weekend expressed his disappointment with Russian President Vladimir Putin over his reluctance to make a ceasefire," he said.

Ibrahim added that in China, data showed that the country's trade balance rose above expectations in June, driven by stronger exports than expected amid a joint rate cut with the United States.

He said the focus this week was on data on US consumer price index inflation for June, which will be released on Tuesday.

Adapun, data tersebut diperkirakan akan menunjukkan peningkatan inflasi inti dan inflasi umum, dengan fokus utama pada apakah tari Trump berkontribusi pada kenaikan harga.

"The stagnant inflation is likely to give the Federal Reserve more encouragement to maintain interest rates, despite pressure from the president for the central bank to immediately cut interest rates," he said.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that Bank Indonesia reported that Indonesia's total foreign debt in May 2025 rose 4.05 billion US dollars or around Rp. 66 trillion, to 435.6 billion US dollars or around Rp. 7,100.28 trillion (assuming the JISDOR BI exchange rate of Rp. 16,300 per US dollar at the end of May 2025).

The foreign debt recorded an increase in the US dollar, but the amount actually decreased when converted to rupiah, which was compared to April 2025 which was valued at US$431.55 billion or around Rp. 7,197.76 trillion (assuming the JISDOR exchange rate at the end of April 2025 of Rp. 16,679 per US dollar).

The external debt position grew 6.8 percent on an annual basis (year on year / YoY), lower than the growth in April 2025 of 8.2 percent.

According to him, this is due to the slowdown in external debt growth in the public sector and the contraction in private external debt growth, in general, Indonesia's external debt structure remains healthy, supported by the application of prudential principles in its management.

He explained that this was reflected in the ratio of Indonesia's external debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which was maintained at 30.6 percent, and was dominated by long-term external debt with a share of 84.6 percent of total external debt.

In detail, the government's external debt position in May 2025 was worth 209.6 billion US dollars or grew by 9.8 percent (YoY), lower than the growth of 10.4 percent in April 2025.

The development of the external debt is influenced by payments due to international Government Securities (SBN), amidst foreign capital inflows in domestic SBN, as global investors maintain confidence in Indonesia's economic prospects amid global economic uncertainty.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading on Tuesday, July 15, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,240 - IDR 16,290 per US dollar.