Bitcoin Reli Triggered By Institutional Requests, Not Just Speculation

JAKARTA - Bitcoin set a new record high on Monday, breaking the USD 123,000 mark (approximately IDR 2 billion at the USD 1 exchange rate of IDR 16.210), amid optimism over the discussion of digital asset regulations by the United States House of Representatives. This increase extends Bitcoin's strengthening throughout 2025 to around 30 percent.

But in contrast to previous rallies that were driven a lot by speculation, the latest evidence of the flow of institutional funds and derivative data suggests that this spike has a more stable and sustainable foundation.

Analysts consider that Bitcoin rallies are currently driven by strong institutional flows of funds, reflecting Bitcoin's transformation into more stable assets and attracting investors as a form of diversification of market volatility and weakening US dollars.

The flow of institutional funds is generally long-term and does not easily turn around, providing greater stability at this rally.

Bitcoin-based ETF (exchange-traded fund) showed strong performance in July. To date, the flow of funds into Bitcoin ETF has reached USD 3.4 billion (approximately IDR 55.11 trillion), including a record USD 2.2 billion (approximately IDR 35.66 trillion) in just the last two days to become the largest two-day net fund flow in history according to data from Farside Investors.

Meanwhile, open interest in the futures Bitcoin market reflects the total unresolved futures contract value also jumped to a record high of 57.4 billion US dollars (approximately Rp930.45 trillion) as of last Friday, according to data from CoinDesk.

This increase indicates increased institutional involvement, as large investors tend to hold bigger and longer-term positions, as well as use futures as a hedging tool.

Even so, the level of funding (funding rate) in the futures market remains low. CoinDesk noted that the annual funding rate was at 10 percent, much lower than its peak in 2023 which reached 80 percent, or 40 percent at the end of last year.

The funding level shows the cost that traders have to pay to maintain their buying position with leverage. This decrease in rates indicates that speculators are starting to be reluctant to pay dearly to keep their bullish stakes "signs that speculative demand has eased."

Data from Glassnode also shows that the Bitcoin leverage ratio decreased to 0.25, from 0.32 in early 2025. This ratio compares the size of the large futures trader position to the number of Bitcoins available on the exchange. The lower ratio indicates that the position is supported by larger real capital, not just loans.

In addition, there was an increase in short position liquidation when traders who were betting on Bitcoin were forced to buy back the asset because prices continued to rise. This buying action also encourages further price rallies.

With this background, this Bitcoin rally seems healthier and more controllable than previous, speculative rallyes. This change in demand structure could be an important signal for investors seeking long-term exposure to the world's largest crypto assets.