Market Awaiting US Inflation Data, Rupiah Potentially Weakens To Rp16,300 Per US Dollar

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Thursday, June 12 is expected to move lower against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Wednesday, June 11, the rupiah spot exchange rate was closed up 0.09 percent to the level of Rp. 16,260 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed higher by 0.06 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,265 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said the focus is now focused on the main US consumer price index inflation data, for further signaling about the world's largest economy.

"The data is expected to show inflation strengthened slightly in May, remaining stable around the levels seen throughout most of 2025," he said in his statement, quoted Thursday, June 12.

Ibrahim added that the U.S. price pressure has largely stopped its decline in recent months, with disruptions stemming from Trump rates also driving a rise in consumer prices.

According to him, the data could give the Federal Reserve more encouragement to keep interest rates unchanged.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that market players are interested in the World Bank version of the poverty line, which needs to be interpreted carefully so as not to cause misleading conclusions in the national context.

Meanwhile, the World Bank uses a purchasing power parity (PPP) approach to adjust purchasing power between countries.

Meanwhile, in the national context, there has been data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) using a basic needs approach or cost of basic needs (CBN) which is much more contextual and in accordance with the characteristics of Indonesian household consumption.

For food components, for example, BPS uses a minimum consumption standard of 2,100 kilocalories per person per day and takes into account the actual consumption pattern of the community, including staple foods such as rice.

In addition, BPS also takes into account basic non-food needs such as education and housing.

As a result of this difference in purpose and methodology, the difference in results is also significant where as of September 2024, BPS recorded a national poverty rate of 8.57 percent or around 24 million people.

Meanwhile, according to the World Bank, with a poverty line of 6.85 US dollars PPP per capita per day (using PPP 2017 or before revision), around 60.3 percent of Indonesia's population in 2024 is considered to live below the upper middle poverty standard.

This gap will get bigger with a revision to 8.30 US dollars (PPP 2021 for middle-up income countries). However, the World Bank's revision to the global poverty line that is now adopting PPP 2021 is an important step to reflect the more up-to-date purchasing power reality, based on the results of the 2021 International Coalition Program (ICP).

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower on trading Thursday, June 12, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,250 - IDR 16,300 per US dollar.