Indonesia's Opportunity To Qualify For The 2026 World Cup: The Best And Worst Scenario Of The Third Round
JAKARTA - The Indonesian national team faces major challenges in the third round of the Asian zone 2026 World Cup Qualifiers. Being in Group C with Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and China, Garuda is ranked fourth after eight matches, with a collection of 9 points from 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats.
Indonesia vs China match in SUGBK, on Thursday 5 June will be an important gamble for Patrick Kluivert's team to keep their chances of qualifying for the 2026 Dunai Cup. The Dutch coach had to bring his team once to win or at least draw in the last two matches.
With only the top two teams from each group that qualified directly for the 2026 World Cup, and ranked third and fourth towards the fourth round of qualifying, Indonesia still has hope, but also risks total failure.
To qualify directly for the World Cup, Indonesia must at least finish in the top two. With a difference of 4 points from Australia (second place with 13 points), the best scenario:
Indonesia must win in the remaining two matches to add a total of 15 points.
Australia has failed to win in the last two matches, while Saudi Arabia (currently in third place with 10 points) did not win all their matches.
If this happens, Indonesia can move up to second place and automatically qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
However, this scenario is tough because the opponents facing Indonesia are still very tough, namely Japan and China.
More realistic, the scenario of qualifying for the fourth round is a target that can still be achieved:
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Indonesia only needs to lock up third or fourth positions at the end of the group standings to keep its hopes for the World Cup:
Indonesia must maintain the advantage over Bahrain and China, which currently both have 6 points.
With only two games remaining, one or two draws can be enough to confirm the fourth position.
If Indonesia finishes in third or fourth place:
Akan masuk Babak Keempat Kualifikasi, bergabung dengan tim peringkat 3 dan 4 dari Grup A dan B.
In the fourth round, the six teams will be divided into two groups, where the top two teams of each group will qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
The second place from each group in the fourth half will compete in the playoffs, and the winner will face representatives from the Africa zone for the final ticket.
Indonesia's failure to advance to the fourth half could happen if:
Indonesia lost in the last two matches, while Bahrain and China won each and passed Indonesia's points.
In this scenario, Indonesia can be shifted to fifth or even sixth position and immediately eliminated from the entire series of qualifications.
With a narrow margin of points and a very decisive match result, the coach and player of the Indonesian national team must prepare themselves optimally.
Although it is not easy, the opportunity for the Indonesian national team to continue to move on in the 2026 World Cup qualifying path is still wide open. The consistency of the game, the coach's precise strategy, and the mentality of the champions in the last two matches will determine Garuda's future.
The Third Round of FIFA World Cup Qualification 2026 AFC Zone:
Team Post M S K MG KG KG Information Point 1 Iran (Q) 8 2 0 16 7 + 9 20 Qualify directly for the 2026 2 World Cup Uzbekistan (X) 8 5 2 1 11 7 + 4 17 Still have the opportunity to qualify directly for 3 UAE 8 4 1 14 7 + 7 Qualifying for the fourth round 4 Qatar (Y) 8 3 1 4 16 21 -5 10 Can't qualify 5 Kirgizstan (Y) 8 2 0 6 9 15 -6 6 Can't qualify 6 North Korea (E) 8 0 6 6 6 16 -9 2 Eliminated
Team Post M S K MG KG KG Information Point 1 Iran (Q) 8 2 0 16 7 + 9 20 Qualify directly for the 2026 2 World Cup Uzbekistan (X) 8 5 2 1 11 7 + 4 17 Still have the opportunity to qualify directly for 3 UAE 8 4 1 14 7 + 7 Qualifying for the fourth round 4 Qatar (Y) 8 3 1 4 16 21 -5 10 Can't qualify 5 Kirgizstan (Y) 8 2 0 6 9 15 -6 6 Can't qualify 6 North Korea (E) 8 0 6 6 6 16 -9 2 Eliminated
"It's okay"
MM S K MG KG Team Post KG South Korean 1 Information Point (X) 8 4 4 0 14 7 + 7 16 Still have the opportunity to qualify directly for Jordan 2 (X) 8 3 4 1 13 7 + 6 13 Still have the opportunity to escape directly 3 Iraq 8 3 3 8 8 7 + 1 12 Escape to the fourth round 4 Oman 8 1 4 8 10 - 2 10 Still able to get to the fourth round 5 Palestine (Y) 8 1 3 4 4 7 12 - 5 6 Can't qualify 6 Kuwait (Y) 8 5 5 3 7 14 - 7 5 Can't qualify directly
MM S K MG KG Team Post KG South Korean 1 Information Point (X) 8 4 4 0 14 7 + 7 16 Still have the opportunity to qualify directly for Jordan 2 (X) 8 3 4 1 13 7 + 6 13 Still have the opportunity to escape directly 3 Iraq 8 3 3 8 8 7 + 1 12 Escape to the fourth round 4 Oman 8 1 4 8 10 - 2 10 Still able to get to the fourth round 5 Palestine (Y) 8 1 3 4 4 7 12 - 5 6 Can't qualify 6 Kuwait (Y) 8 5 5 3 7 14 - 7 5 Can't qualify directly
"It's okay"
MM S K MG KG Team Post KG Information Point 1 Japan (Q) 8 2 0 24 2 +22 20 Qualify directly for the 2026 2 World Cup Australia (X) 8 3 4 1 13 6 + 7 13 Still have the opportunity to qualify directly for 3 Saudi Arabia 8 2 4 4 4 6 -2 10 Qualifying for the fourth round of Indonesia 8 3 3 3 8 14 - 6 9 Still able to get to the fourth round of 5 Bahrain (Y) 8 1 4 4 5 13 - 8 6 Can't qualify directly 6 China (Y) 8 2 0 6 19 -13 6 Can't qualify directly
MM S K MG KG Team Post KG Information Point 1 Japan (Q) 8 2 0 24 2 +22 20 Qualify directly for the 2026 2 World Cup Australia (X) 8 3 4 1 13 6 + 7 13 Still have the opportunity to qualify directly for 3 Saudi Arabia 8 2 4 4 4 6 -2 10 Qualifying for the fourth round of Indonesia 8 3 3 3 8 14 - 6 9 Still able to get to the fourth round of 5 Bahrain (Y) 8 1 4 4 5 13 - 8 6 Can't qualify directly 6 China (Y) 8 2 0 6 19 -13 6 Can't qualify directly
"It's okay"
Abbreviation:
M = Main
M = Win
S = Series
K = Lose
MG = Minute Gol (Entrance Goal)
KG = Concession
SG = Goal difference
Q = Qualify automatically for the 2026 World Cup
X = Escape at least to the fourth round, can still qualify directly
Y = Can't qualify directly, but can still go to the fourth round
E = Elimination