US Import Tariff Policy Is Significant To BRICS Members

JAKARTA - The Next Policy study institute stated that if Donald Trump's policy of planning to apply 100 percent import rates to BRICS member countries is actually implemented, then Indonesia as a new member of BRICS has the potential to be significantly affected.

Next Policy researcher Muhammad Ibnu reminded that the 100 percent import tariff policy that the US will impose on BRICS countries should be a serious concern.

"This policy can cause oversupply in BRICS countries, which in turn can make Indonesia a 'disposal market' for countries with more mature industries," Ibnu said in his statement, Monday, February 10.

Ibnu questioned the relevance and urgency of Indonesia's membership in BRICS. Until now, the government has not provided a clear reason other than the narrative of active free politics and diversification of strategic partners. In fact, the domestic economic situation is not doing well.

"Since 2024, household consumption has continued to weaken, there has been deflation for five consecutive months, and the level of employment in the labor/employment category is still below 40.7 percent, the figure that was achieved before the 2019 pandemic," he said.

In addition, Ibnu conveyed that the cutting of government spending, which was recently discussed, added to the pressure on the national economy.

Furthermore, Ibnu highlighted the downward trend in the growth of the manufacturing industry which has continued to decline in the last three years, namely in 2022 at 4.89 percent, 4.64 percent in 2023, and 4.43 percent in 2024.

According to him, as the main sector in the manufacturing industry's GDP, ideally the growth of the manufacturing industry should be above 5 percent in order to be in line with national economic growth.

Indonesia has not transformed into an industrial country, but the contribution of the industrial sector has actually shrunk. This strengthens indications of an increasingly real early deindustrialization," he said.

Ibnu said Indonesia must take advantage of BRICS membership to strengthen the value chain of the global industry, not just become a market for other countries.

According to Ibnu, in the midst of a downward trend in people's purchasing power, increasing the competitiveness of local industries will not occur automatically. Real support from the government is needed through appropriate policies, adequate infrastructure, and investment in research and innovation.

"If not, Indonesia's membership in BRICS could actually be a burden that weakens the national industrial sector, instead of strengthening it," concluded Ibnu.

Meanwhile, the Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Indonesia Shofwan Al Banna Choiruzzad also enyoroti the unclear strategy of the government in membership of BRICS.

"It is not clear what the government wants to achieve by joining BRICS, especially because of the unconsistent policy direction," he said.

FEB UI economist Made Krisna emphasized the need for a more progressive industrial strategy. He compared Indonesia's policy with China, which allocates 5 percent of GDP for industrial subsidies.

"The Chinese industry is growing rapidly because of the large incentives, while in Indonesia, incentives for industries are still very limited," he said.

According to him, the government should focus more on developing strategic industries that have high export potential and be able to reduce dependence on imports.

In addition to industrial incentives, Made also highlighted the importance of regional integration to strengthen national industrial competitiveness.

"Indonesia must play a more active role in the ASEAN industrial ecosystem, given the huge market potential and can still be developed," he added.