Donald Trump Returns To Power, Indonesia Joins BRICS Is Blunder?

JAKARTA Indonesia's decision to join BRICS is considered too hasty. Moreover, with Donald Trump's inauguration as President of the United States, Indonesia joining BRICS is touted as a mistake.

Indonesia has officially joined the economic bloc filled with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, known as BRICS starting Monday (6/1/2025). The announcement of Indonesia's status as a permanent member of BRICS was delivered by the Brazilian government in an official release. They said all members agreed to the Southeast Asian state concession to the bloc.

Indonesia did convey its interest in joining the economic forum when it was present at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia in October 2024.

The joining of Indonesia with BRICS was considered by many as a good start for the government of President Prabowo Subianto and Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka. Foreign Minister Sugiono said that joining Indonesia with BRICS made the nation's work even more recognized by the world.

But from the point of view of economic observers, it is considered that there is a potential geopolitical tension that arises because the competition between the US and China is getting more intensive.

Foreign Minister Sugiono on several occasions emphasized that Indonesia joined BRICS as a form of realization of active free police officers. In addition, Indonesia is also part of the G20 forum, whose members include the US, China, and Russia.

However, it is common knowledge that the US and China are at loggerheads in many ways, from trade, technology, to issues in the Asia Pacific region such as the South China Sea and Taiwan. The relationship between the US and Russia has also deteriorated following the invasion of the Red Bear Country into Ukraine since 2022. BRICS is touted as a counter-G& economic forum, which contains US allies.

US President Donald Trump, who was just sworn in on Monday (20/1/2025), has threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff for BRICS member states if they replace the US dollar in international trade.

"BRICS countries are trying to stay away from dollars and they think we're just silent and watching," Trump said via Truth Social's personal account on November 30, 2024.

Not only that, Trump also asked the commitment of BRICS countries not to create new currencies or support other currencies to replace the US dollar. Otherwise, it will face the threat of a 100 percent import rate.

Trump's statement is his reaction from the last BRICS Summit to be held in Kazan, Russia in November 2024. During the meeting, BRICS member countries discussed increasing non-dolar US transactions and strengthening local currencies.

Since its inception in 2009, BRICS has been seen as a group that wants to oppose Western domination. One of the things that BRICS is concerned about is a more inclusive global financial system. They want to reduce the dominance of the US dollar which has been the main currency in world trade and investment.

"Donald Trump's shock at BRICS countries should not be considered a wind," said economist Director of China-Indonesia Desk Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat. According to him, Indonesia's membership in BRICS could pose a risk, one of which is the target of US President Donald Trump's trading protextinism.

"Trump's reaction needs to be watched out for, because he is one of the leaders who proves his words," said Zulfikar.

"If, the US imposes a 100 percent tariff on BRICS member countries, of course, Indonesia will be affected by this policy, it is undeniable that this will also be a challenge for the Indonesian economy in the short or medium term," he added.

Zulfikar said the government needs to be aware of this risk, because it will be a challenge for the Indonesian economy in the short and medium term.

"This will also lead to a sharp decline in export volumes, especially for products that rely heavily on the US market," said Zulfikar.

In the last five years, Indonesia has recorded a surplus in the balance sheet with the United States. This is because the value of Indonesia's exports to the US is greater than the value of imports. Indonesia's export rate to the US only increased after 2020, after Trump's first period ended.

Idil Syafwi, who is an observer of international relations from Parahyangan University, said that if Trump really applied the 100 percent tariff policy, it would be a loss for Indonesia considering that most of Indonesia's exports to the US were raw materials.

In addition, joining BRICS has raised concerns regarding the US view. Indonesia is likely to be considered by the US to be more inclined to become part of a revised group than to support the status quo which is currently the United States.

Meanwhile, an observer of international relations at Airlangga University, Radityo Dharmaputra, assessed that membership in BRICS has more potential to harm Indonesia.

"The economic benefits (joining BRICS) are still unclear. Meanwhile, the geopolitical losses are in sight," Radityo said on his personal X account.

For this reason, Radityo emphasized the importance of continuing to build dialogue with the US to convince Uncle Sam's country that Indonesia has no bad intentions by joining BRICS.

One of them is by having reliable diplomats who can navigate relationships with the US. Unfortunately until now, said Radityo, Indonesia's ambassador position in the US has been vacant for some time and there is no sign that it will be appointed soon.