Rupiah Movement Potentially Fluctuating Impact Of US Economic Data
JAKARTA - Financial Market Observer and Commodity Ariston Tjendra said that the movement of the rupiah has the potential to strengthen against the United States (US) dollar on Friday, January 17.
Ariston said the market seemed to be still reacting to the announcement of cutting BI interest rates which pushed the rupiah to weaken against the US dollar.
"But last night important US economic data was re-released under market expectations, namely US retail sales data in December which grew by only 0.4 percent compared to the previous month's 0.8 percent so that the US dollar index moved down to 109 this morning," he said, Friday, January 17.
Director of PT Profit Forexindo Berjangka Ibrahim Assuaibi said that the release of data on consumer price index inflation for December reads slightly lower than expected. The main CPI is in accordance with estimates, while the core CPI only misses expectations.
"However, the data that came out was only a day after the producer's price index data was weaker than expected," he explained.
According to Ibrahim, the low CPI data sparked an increased bet that the easing of US inflation would give Fed more confidence to cut interest rates this year.
"The central bank is projected to cut interest rates twice by 2025, half of the total decline by 2024," he said.
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Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but closed lower in trading Friday, January 17, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,360 - IDR 16,430 per US dollar.
Meanwhile, Ariston estimates that the movement of the rupiah on Friday, January 17, the weakening of the rupiah could be restrained and tried to strengthen to the level of Rp. 16,300 per US dollar with a potential resistance in the range of Rp. 16,400 per US dollar.
Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Thursday, January 16, 2024, the rupiah exchange rate on the spot market closed down 0.31 percent at the level of Rp. 16,376 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.41 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,378 per US dollar.