Realization Of The 2024 Macroeconomic Basic Assumptions Misses Target

JAKARTA - The Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) reports that all basic macroeconomic assumptions in the 2024 State Budget have missed the target.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati estimates that economic growth in 2024 will only reach the range of 5 percent or lower than the target of the basic economic assumption in 2024 which reaches 5.2 percent.

"Economic growth in the first quarter reached 5.11 percent, second quarter 5.05 percent, third quarter 4.95 percent, and fourth quarter still not out, we estimate the whole year to be estimated at 5 percent," he said at the KiTa State Budget press conference, on Monday, January 6.

In addition, Sri Mulyani said that inflation reached 1.57 percent or lower than the assumed target of 2.8 percent.

However, inflation had soared to 3.1 percent in April 2024.

For the rupiah exchange rate to weaken to the level of Rp. 16,162 per US dollar by the end of 2024, this figure is far from what is assumed by the 2024 State Budget of Rp. 15,000 per US dollar.

According to Sri Mulyani, the depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate is quite significant this year, so it greatly affects state spending, but it is still offset by allocations to mitigate effective spending as a shock absorber.

Sri Mulyani said that the weakening in the rupiah exchange rate was due to pressure from global factors such as the Fed Fund Rate detention policy and strengthening the US dollar, causing foreign capital to emerge from the Indonesian financial market which was experiencing deviation.

Furthermore, the realization of the 10 year SBN yield at the end of 2024 reached 7 percent, this figure is higher than the APBN assumption of 6.7 percent.

However, Sri Mulyani said that the SBN yield had increased in April and June which were at the level of 7.2 percent.

However, he believes, financing remains safe and sandals.

Next, Sri Mulyani explained that the price of Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP) reached 71.6 US dollars per barrel by the end of 2024, this figure is lower than the assumed target of 82 US dollars per barrel.

Then the realization of oil lifting as of November reached 571.700 BPH, lower than the assumptions that reached 635,000 BPH. Likewise, the realization of gas lifting as of November 2024 reached 973,000 BSMPH, lower than the assumption of 1,033,000 BSMPH.

Sri Mulyani said oil and gas lifting was below the target but the impact on the state budget, especially on the income side, was still limited.