SMRC Survey: Pramono-Rano's Electability is Heading Up, 6.9 Percent Difference with RK-Suswono

JAKARTA - The SMRC survey institute released a poll on the electability of the Jakarta gubernatorial candidate pairs. The results showed that candidate pair number 3 Pramono Anung-Rano Karno received 46 percent support

Meanwhile, candidate pair number 1 Ridwan Kamil-Suswono had 39.1 percent electability, and candidate pair number 2 Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana had 5.1 percent of the vote. There were 9.8 percent who had not responded.

SMRC Executive Director Deni Irvani revealed that there was an upward trend in the Pramono-Rano and RK-Suswono candidate pairs. However, the electability gap is getting wider.

In the period of October 10-17, the difference between Pramono-Rano and RK-Suswono was 4.2 percent. However, on October 31-November 9, the difference in electability was 6.9 percent.

"The difference in the electability of Pramono-Rano and RK-Suswono changed from being statistically insignificant to significant in a span of about 3 weeks. The difference in support between the Pramono-Rano pair and the RK-Suswono pair in the last survey was around 6.9 percent, twice the margin of error," said Deni in his survey presentation, Wednesday, October 13.

Deni dissected, the increase in Pramono-Rano's electability was based on the increase in the popularity of the pair. Rano is already known to 93 percent of residents. Of those who know him, 92 percent of them like him. Then Pramono is known to 55 percent of residents, and his liking has reached 77 percent.

Meanwhile, Ridwan Kamil is known to 91 residents, and of those who know him, his liking is 74 percent. Then, Suswono is known to 29 percent of residents and his liking from those who know him is 61 percent.

"This explains why the Pramon-Rano pair is currently significantly ahead for the time being," explained Deni.

According to Deni, it is possible that the Jakarta gubernatorial election could take place in one round. And from the electability facts of the last week, the Pramono-Rano pair has the most potential to get more than 50 percent of the vote.

"Will there be one round, someone wins 50 percent plus? It's possible. And from the facts of the last week, the Pramono-Rano pair is the closest to achieving that," he said.

For information, this survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews in the period from October 31 to November 9, 2024. The population of this survey was all Indonesian citizens in Jakarta Province who had the right to vote in the general election, namely those who were 17 years of age or older or were married when the survey was conducted.

From that population, 1210 respondents were selected randomly (stratified multistage random sampling). The margin of error of the survey with this sample size is estimated at ± 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.