Economists Predict Economic Growth In The Third Quarter Of 2024 Amounting To 5.02 Percent

JAKARTA - Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede estimates that economic growth in the third quarter of 2024 is estimated to be around 5.02 percent on an annual basis or year on year (yoy) compared to the previous quarter of 5.05 percent (yoy).

Josua said that the economic driver in the third quarter of 2024 was still household consumption which was estimated to grow 5.03 percent (yoy) compared to 4.93 percent (yoy) and 5.05 percent (yoy) in the third quarter of 2023.

"The increase in household consumption rate is indicated from several indicators such as retail sales at the end of the third quarter of 2024 which was recorded at 4.7 percent (yoy) compared to 2.72 percent (yoy) in the second quarter of 2024 and 1.48 percent (yoy) in the third quarter of 2023," he said in his statement, Monday, November 4.

In addition, the Consumer Confidence Index at the end of the third quarter of 2024 also showed good conditions where it grew by about 1.5 percent (yoy) compared to the second quarter of 2024, contracting by 2.98 percent (yoy).

Josua said that solid consumption was supported by the downward trend in supply-side inflation, especially volatile price inflation and government-regulated prices, while core inflation tended to show an increasing trend until the end of the third quarter of 2024, recorded 2.09 percent (yoy) compared to 1.90 percent (yoy) in the second quarter of 2024.

According to Josua, although there were no driving factors such as the Religious Holidays seasonal factors in the second quarter of 2024 and election activities in the first quarter of 2024, passenger mobility, both land, sea and rail, still showed positive growth.

The sales of cars, both wholesale and retail in the third quarter of 2024, still contracted by 10.49 percent (yoy) and 7.77 percent (yoy), but motorcycle sales still recorded solid growth of 12.0 percent (yoy) compared to 4.2 percent (yoy) and 11.3 percent (yoy) in the third quarter of 2023.

Meanwhile, another driver in terms of expenditure, namely PMTB, is expected to grow 4.23 percent (yoy) compared to 4.43 percent (yoy) in the second quarter of 2024 and 5.77 percent (yoy) in the third quarter of 2023.

Building investment is estimated to tend to experience a slowdown indicated by cement sales in the third quarter of 2024 which recorded a growth of 1.1 percent (yoy) compared to the second quarter of 2024 of 4.5 percent (yoy) and 6.8 percent (yoy) in the third quarter of 2023.

Meanwhile, sales of heavy equipment in the third quarter of 2024 still contracted 11.6 percent (yoy) even though the contraction improved compared to the previous quarter of 32.8 percent (yoy).

Josua explained that the contraction in sales of heavy equipment was influenced by the continued normalization of coal commodity prices, which on average fell by around 7.3 percent (yoy) in the third quarter of 2024.

Government spending in the third quarter of 2024 is estimated to grow 4.13 percent (yoy) compared to the second quarter of 2024 1.42 percent (yoy) and 3.93 percent (yoy) in the third quarter of 2023.

The increase in the rate of government spending is indicated by the increase in spending on goods and personnel spending.

Exports in the third quarter of 2024 are estimated to grow 9.38 percent (yoy) compared to the second quarter of 2024 8.28 percent (yoy), while import performance is estimated to grow 10.55 percent (yoy) compared to the second quarter of 2024 8.57 percent (yoy).

Josua said that the increased export performance was influenced by the still solid volume of exports while the volume of imports also tended to increase, driven by the increase in imports of capital goods and raw materials in line with the resilience of the domestic economy.

Overall, economic growth in 2024 is estimated to be around 5.04 percent (yoy) compared to 2023 which was recorded at 5.05 percent (yoy).

Josua said household consumption and government spending are expected to grow better while PMTB is expected to tend to slow down overall 2024 compared to 2023.