Public Satisfaction with Incumbent Low, Candidate Rudy-Seno Outperforms Isran-Hadi in East Kalimantan Gubernatorial Election Survey

JAKARTA - The Millennium Community Research Institute (LPMM) released the results of a survey related to the electability rate of the candidate pair for governor and candidate for deputy governor of East Kalimantan.

As a result, the pair Rudy Mas'ud outperformed the incumbent pair Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi with an electability rate of 58.7 percent.

"Meanwhile, the incumbent pair Isran Noor and Hadi Mulyadi only received an electability rate of 32.7 percent, and the percentage of respondents who did not give the choice reached 8.6 percent," said LPMM Executive Director Alamsyah Wijaya in his statement, Tuesday, October 22.

Alamsyah revealed, in the category of Top of Mind open questions, cagub and incumbent cawagub, Isran Noor and Hadi Mulyadi were only spontaneously selected by 30.1 percent of respondents. On the other hand, the pair of challengers, Rudy Mas'ud and Seno Aji, won 51.7 percent of the votes spontaneously, while 18.2 percent of respondents did not provide answers.

Then in a closed question where respondents were asked to choose one of the pairs of candidates for the head of the East Kalimantan region, the results showed that the incumbent pair, Isran Noor and Hadi Mulyadi, received 32.7 percent of the votes.

Meanwhile, the couple Rudy Mas'ud and Seno Aji received 58.7 percent of the votes and 8.6 percent of respondents did not provide a choice.

The lack of electability rate of Isran Noor-Hadi is influenced by the level of public satisfaction with incumbent performance which is below 50 percent. In the survey findings, the level of satisfaction with Isran Noor's performance as governor only reached 40.3 percent.

"In detail, 32.4 percent of respondents were satisfied and 7.9 percent were very satisfied. Meanwhile, those who were dissatisfied reached 51.4 percent, and only 2.7 percent were very dissatisfied," explained Alamsyah.

In the survey, continued Alamsyah, respondents were also asked whether Isran Noor and Hadi Mulyadi deserved to be re-nominated for the next five years. As a result, 61.8 percent of respondents answered inappropriately, while 31.9 percent answered decently.

LPMM then recorded several factors that contributed to the potential defeat of Isran Noor and Hadi Mulyadi as incumbents. First, the incumbent candidate's inability to provide significant innovations or changes during his term of office. Second, a leadership style that is not in accordance with the needs of the community.

"If incumbent candidates do not pay attention to the aspirations of the community or are not responsive to their needs, voters tend to seek change by choosing new candidates who offer a more appropriate leadership approach," said Alamsyah.

"In fact, one of the advantages of an incumbent being able to be re-elected is to have a longer time to socialize and show their performance and work during their tenure," he concluded.

The LPMM survey took place from 10-20 October 2024, by taking a sample of 1,200 respondents from the population of the final voter list (DPT) of the 2024 East Kalimantan Pilkada. Respondents spread proportionally in seven districts and three cities in East Kalimantan.

The sampling was carried out using a multistage random sampling method. The confidence level of this survey reached 95 percent with a margin of error of +/- 2.89 percent.