The Phenomenon Of Langka Challenger Unggungil Incumbent 30% In The Jombang Regional Head Election Survey

JAKARTA The pair of Warsubi and Salmanudin Yazid are significantly superior in the electability survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) Denny JA ahead of the 2024 Jombang Regency Pilkada. Based on a survey conducted on September 5-10, 2024, this pair of challengers won 53.9% support, far above the incumbent pair Mundjidah Wahab-Sumrbah who only got 23.9%. A total of 22.2% of respondents have not made a choice.

LSI senior researcher Denny JA, Fadhli Fakhri Fauzan, called this result a rare phenomenon in local politics. "The difference between the challenger and the incumbent is a positive indication for Warsubi-Salmanudin Yazid. This is rare, especially in the context of incumbent fights," Fadhli said in a presentation of the survey results in Jakarta as received on Friday, September 20.

Fadhli revealed that the high electability of the Warsubi-Salmanudin Yazid pair was driven by two main factors. First, the level of people's preference for them reached 75.2%. Second, as many as 67.2% of the Jombang community want new leaders who can bring change.

"This shows that the people of Jombang hope that different leaders, and the Warsubi-Salmanudin Yazid pair meet that expectation," he added.

Imam Fauzi Surahmat, the regional coordinator of LSI Denny JA for East Java, added that the results of this survey reflect significant changes in the political sentiments of the people of Jombang. "Hopefully the new leader will be very strong, and this will be a strength for Warsubi-Salmanudin Yazid in dealing with the incumbent pair," he said.

The LSI Denny JA survey was conducted using a multistage random sampling method against 440 respondents, with a margin of error of 084.8% and a 95% confidence level. The survey covers the entire population of Jombang who are 17 years old and over or are married, with data collection through face-to-face interviews.

Ardian Sopa, another researcher from LSI Denny JA, stressed that people's expectations for new leaders, reaching 67.2%, are a challenge for incumbents. "The people of Jombang are increasingly critical and want real changes in governance. This is a strong signal that incumbents must be more responsive to the aspirations of the community," he said.

This survey is an important benchmark for the political dynamics of the 2024 Jombang Pilkada. Even though Warsubi-Salmanudin Yazid excels, there is still room for change, considering that 22.2% of respondents have not made a choice.

Imam Fauzi Surahmat emphasized the importance of an effective campaign for both partners. "The campaign period which starts on September 25 is a crucial time to strengthen support and attract voters who have not made a choice," he concluded.

With the results of this survey, the 2024 Jombang Pilkada looks like it will be an interesting contestation, with Warsubi-Salmanudin Yazid in a strong position in the competition towards victory.