CSIS Economist Says There Is A Possibility Of Changes In The 2025 State Budget In The Middle Of The Road

JAKARTA - Senior Economist Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Deni Friawan said there was a possibility of a change in the 2025 State Budget in the middle of the road or what was referred to as the APBN-P during the upcoming Prabowo-Gibran Administration.

According to him, these changes are a natural thing to happen, especially during the transition of government.

"But will there be a APBN-P later? I think it will most likely happen, after all, in the Jokowi era it was like that, especially now. So it's a natural thing that there is an APBN-P," Deni said during a CSIS media briefing regarding the 2025 RAPBN in Jakarta, quoted from Antara, Monday, August 19.

Deni said whether or not the 2025 APBN-P occurred depends on macroeconomic factors in 2025.

In addition to the domestic economy, according to him, geopolitical factors also play an important role in considering changes to the 2025 State Budget.

"It could have happened suddenly that there was a war between Iran and Israel, Russia too, it must have been the price of oil (soaring). If the rupiah and oil change, all macro assumptions change everything. Therefore geopoliticals are very influential," he explained.

In addition, what needs to be watched out for in 2025 is widening the deficit.

According to Deni, changes in the target deficit in the middle of the road will be too risky for the Prabowo-Gibran government.

Similarly, the Executive Director of CSIS, Yose Rizal Damuri, also conveyed the same thing, namely the possibility of an APBN-P.

However, he again noted that the APBN-P needs to consider various conditions that require adjustments.

"It depends on the condition. For example, here the exchange rate (rupiah) is set at Rp. 16,100. If later, for example, it has reached 16,500, it needs to be changed, of course. Likewise, world oil prices or economic growth can all change and adjustments need to be made," he said.

As for the Introductory / Government's speech on the Draft Law on the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) for Fiscal Year 2025 along with the Financial Note Friday (19/8/2024), Indonesian President Joko Widodo targets the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar at IDR 16,100 per US dollar.

He also aims for economic growth of 5.2 percent with a budget deficit of 2.53 percent.