Pasar Optimistic The Fed Bakal Pangkas Suku Bunga AS, Rupiah Berpotensi Menguat

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in Jum'at trading, August 16, 2024 is expected to move higher against the United States (US) dollar. Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Thursday, August 15, 2024, the rupiah exchange rate in the spot market closed down 0.16 percent at the level of Rp. 15,699 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) Jakarta Interbank Bank Indonesia (BI) closed higher by 0.02 percent to a price level of Rp. 15,687 per US dollar. Director of PT. Forexindo Futures Laba Ibrahim Assuaibi said US consumer prices rose moderately in July and the annual inflation increase slowed to below 3 percent for the first time in nearly 3.5 years, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates next month. "Traders prefer smaller cuts, 25 basis points by Fed in September, according to the CME Fedwatch. The tool previously indicated traders were divided into 25 bps and 50 bps cuts, with the ones "lastly presents better prospects for the metal market," he said in a statement, quoted Friday, August 16. Ibrahim raised investor concerns over Iran's potential response to the killing of Palestinian Islamist group leader Hamas last month in favor of prices. Three senior Iranian officials said that only a ceasefire deal in Gaza would detain Iran from direct retaliation against Israel for the killings. From within the country, Foreign Debt (ULN) Indonesia in the second quarter of 2024 was recorded at US$408.6 billion. This foreign exchange debt grew by 2.7 percent (yoy), higher than the growth of 0.2 percent (yoy) in the first quarter of 2024. This increase came from public and private sector external debt. Meanwhile, the government's external debt again recorded a growth contraction. The position of government external debt in the second quarter of 2024 was 191.0 billion US dollars, or recorded a growth contraction of 0.8 percent (yoy), continuing from contraction in the previous quarter it was 0.9 percent (yoy). This was influenced by the adjustment of the placement of non-resident investor funds in domestic Government Securities (SBN) in line with the high uncertainty of the global financial market. Regarding this external debt, according to Erwin, the government is committed to maintaining credibility by fulfilling basic payment obligations and interest on time, as well as managing debt external debt in a prudent, measurable, opportunistic and flexible manner to obtain financing the most efficient and optimal. Based on the economic sector, government external debt mainly includes the Health and Social Activity Services Sector (20.9 percent of the total government external debt), Government Administration, Defense and Social Security (18.8 percent), Education Services (16.8 percent), Construction (13.6 percent), and Financial and Insurance Services (9.5 percent). The government's external debt position remains under control considering that almost all external debt has a long-term tenor with a share of 99.99 percent of the the government's total external debt.

In order to keep the external debt structure healthy, Bank Indonesia and the Government continue to strengthen coordination in monitoring the development of external debt. The role of external debt will also continue to be optimized to support development financing and encourage sustainable national economic growth. These efforts are carried out while still minimizing risks that can affect economic stability.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close higher in trading Friday, August 16, 2024, in the price range of IDR 15,630 - IDR 15,720 per US dollar.