If You Go For The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election, Ridwan Kamil Can Take The Vote Of Ahok Voters

JAKARTA - Executive Director of Indonesian Political Indicators Burhanuddin Muhtadi said Ridwan Kamil could get votes from Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok) voter base if he ran for the 2024 DKI Jakarta Pilkada.

This finding can be seen from the analysis of the latest survey simulation of Indicators regarding the electability of figures to become candidates for the Governor of DKI Jakarta.

If Anies confronts Ridwan Kamil (RK), Burhanuddin said that Ahok's supporters tend to shift their support to RK if the figure they support does not advance in the Jakarta regional election.

In the simulation of three names, Anies' electability was at 43.8 percent, Ahok with 32.1 percent, and RK 18.9 percent. When Ahok was eliminated and the rest were head to head, the difference in RK's electability with Anies was getting thinner.

"When Ahok was not included in the simulation, I assumed Anies versus RK, directly Ahok's vote tended to run to RK, RK's initial vote was around 18 percent, immediately jumped 20 percent to 38.8 percent," Burhanuddin told reporters, Friday, July 26.

Currently, RK has not carried out intense political activities in Jakarta, the gap or difference in electability is thin and not too far away. So, according to Burhanuddin, this condition makes the electability of RK in Jakarta still stagdling.

However, the results of a survey conducted by the Indonesian Political Indicators saw an opportunity for the former governor of West Java.

"But again in Jakarta (RK) it's not without a chance. Ridwan Kamil still has an opportunity even though his chances are not as big as in West Java. However, that doesn't mean he has a dead card in Jakarta. Because Ridwan Kamil's ability to attract other supporters is stronger," said Burhanuddin.

"So, even though Ahok is number two under Anies in all simulations and above Ridwan Kamil, if you look at this trend, it seems that RK is more competitive against Anies than Ahok," he added.

This Indicator Survey was conducted in the period 18-26 June 2024 with a total sample of 800 respondents who are residents of DKI Jakarta aged over 17 years or married.

The withdrawal of respondents was obtained through a simple random sampling technique with a margin of error of > 3.5 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.