Bitcoin Ready To Break New Record Ahead Of Halfing 2024

JAKARTA - Bitcoin, the world's most popular crypto asset, is experiencing a tremendous price increase. In recent months, the price of Bitcoin has soared nearly 50%, hitting an all-time high of 69,044 US dollars per z coin in November 2021. However, can Bitcoin maintain its momentum and even surpass that record before the 2024 half?

Halving is an event that happens once every four years, where the number of new Bitcoins created by each block decreases by half. Halving aims to control inflation and maintain the scarcity of Bitcoin. The next Halving is scheduled to take place on April 19, 2024, where block prizes will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

According to digital asset research firm 10X Research, there are two main reasons why Bitcoin has the potential to surpass its record high before the 2024 halving. First, Bitcoin has a historical pattern that shows price increases before and after halving. Second, Bitcoin has strong technical indicators that signal high demand and positive momentum.

Bitcoin Historical Pattern

10X Research analyzed three previous halving cycles that occurred in 2012, 2016, and 2020. They found that Bitcoin usually hit its lowest point in 12 to 16 months before halving, and then experienced a price increase of 30% in the eight weeks before haloing.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, estimates that the same pattern will repeat itself in the 2024 halving. He said that the price of Bitcoin will increase by 32% in 60 days ahead of haloing, meaning Bitcoin will reach 69,070 US dollars (Rp1.08 billion) in or before April 19, 2024.

Thielen also added that Bitcoin's chances of continuing rally after halling will increase, given its positive market sentiment towards crypto. He pointed to the high interest of traditional investors, who are interested in buying Bitcoin spot ETF, which is an investment product that tracks the price of Bitcoin directly.

The spot Bitcoin ETF was first approved by the SEC, US capital market regulator, on January 11, 2024. Since then, the Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced strong inflows, reaching a total of US$4.69 billion (Rp73.3 trillion) on February 16, 2024, according to data from CoinShares.

Bitcoin Technical Indicators

In addition to historical patterns, 10X Research also sees technical indicators that support their predictions. One of the indicators they use is Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the strength of the Bitcoin price trend.

Last week, RSI Bitcoin hit a level above 80% in a 14-day graph, which is a signal that Bitcoin is in overbought condition, or over-purchased. However, according to 10X Research, this is not a bad thing, but vice versa.

Tim 10X Research menunjukkan bahwa dalam 14 kali Bitcoin mencapai level RSI di atas 80%, 12 kali di antaranya diikuti oleh rata-rata kenaikan harga sebesar 54% dalam 60 hari berikutnya. Ini berarti bahwa Bitcoin masih memiliki ruang untuk naik lebih tinggi, meskipun sudah mencapai level tertinggi sepanjang masa.

Whether Bitcoin will actually surpass its record high before the 2024 halving is still an unanswered question. However, based on a 10X Research analysis, there is a strong reason to be optimistic. Currently, Bitcoin is trading for $52,326, up 1.4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.