BI Estimates Banking Credit Will Grow 10.8 Percent In 2024

JAKARTA - Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that credit growth is expected to improve in 2024. This optimism arose based on the results of a survey conducted by BI which showed growth from respondents.

Based on the survey results, it was noted that respondents predicted that outstanding loans by the end of 2024 would increase by 10.8 percent on an annual basis (yoy) or slightly higher than the realization of credit growth in 2023 by 10.4 percent (yoy) although not as high as the realization of growth in 2022 by 11.4 percent (yoy).

Meanwhile, these results are in line with BI's target of projecting bank credit to grow in the range of 10 percent to 12 percent.

"This optimism is driven, among other things, by the prospect of monetary and economic conditions in the future and the relative risk of lending is maintained," said Assistant Governor for Communications Department in his official statement, Tuesday, January 23, 2024.

However, quarterly (qtq), new lending in the first quarter of 2024 is predicted to grow positively even though it is not as high as the previous quarter.

This is indicated by the Weighted Net Balance (SBT) forecast for new credit disbursement in the first quarter of 2024 which amounted to 44.6 percent, growing positively although lower than SBT 96.1 percent in the previous quarter. This forecast is in line with the historical pattern of realization of new credit growth.

Meanwhile, the main priority of respondents in distributing new credit in the first quarter of 2024 is working capital credit, followed by investment credit and consumption credit. In the type of consumption credit, mortgage/KPA distribution is still a top priority, followed by multipurpose credit and KKB.

Based on the sector, the distribution of new loans in the first quarter of 2024 is prioritized in the Processing Industry sector, the Large and Retail Trade sector, and the Financial Intermediary sector.