PRC Survey: Prabowo-Gibran Electability Drops From 47.8 Percent To 42.4

JAKARTA - The Political Institute for Research and Consulting (PRC) released the latest survey results, where the downward trend in electability occurred in the Prabowo-Gibran pair from the November 2023 survey of 47.8 percent, to 42.4 percent in December 2023.

The decline also occurred in the Ganjar-Mahfud pair from 23.5 percent in November 2023 to 21.8 percent in December 2023.

He said the survey also revealed that Jokowi's voters had moved from Ganjar-Mahfud. The move was caused by variable worsening relations between Jokowi and PDI Perjuangan.

"It is very likely that the decline or mutation will be drastic, from Ganjar's voter structure," said PRC Executive Director Rio Prayogo as quoted by ANTARA, Saturday, January 6.

Things are different precisely for the Anies-Muhaimin candidate pair. The electability of the two actually increases.

"The upward trend occurred in the electability of the Anies-Muhaimin pair from 25.5 percent in November 2023 to 28.0 percent in December 2023," he said.

Rio said 61.7 percent of the people who were satisfied with President Jokowi's performance were the most distributed to Prabowo-Gibran. Meanwhile, 36.3 percent of the people who said they were dissatisfied with Jokowi's performance were identical to Anies-Muhaimin.

In addition, respondents who witnessed the debate directly or indirectly amounted to 54.0 percent and who did not watch 46.0 percent. However, snippets of the debate were also distributed through social media so that they had a multiplier effect.

"The video clip of the debate was watched on social media, especially on TikTok and Facebook. Even though I didn't watch it live, I suspect the influence of the debate had an impact on the upper and middle levels, but it had no effect on the grassroots level," he said.

Rio mengungkapkan swing voters sebesar 18.1 persen yang masih mungkin berubah pilihan. Sementara pemilih yang sudah bersiat menetapkan pilihan sebesar 81,0 persen, dan yang tidak menjawab sebesar 0,9 persen.

He said, with today's electability portrait, it is possible that the 2024 presidential election will run 2 rounds.

The PRC survey was conducted face-to-face on 20-27 December 2023. The number of 1,200 respondents spread proportionally in 34 provinces. The randomization uses the multistage random sampling method.

The General Election Commission (KPU) of the Republic of Indonesia on Monday, November 13, 2023, determined three pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates to participate in the 2024 Presidential and Vice Presidential Elections (Pilpres).

The results of the draw and determination of the number of participants for the 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, November 14, 2023, the pair Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar number 1, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka number 2, and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD number 3.

The KPU has also set a campaign period from November 28, 2023 to February 10, 2024, then the voting schedule will be on February 14, 2024.