Indometer Survey: Prab Owo-Gibran's Electability Starts Stable In More Than 50%

The findings of the Indometer survey show that the electability of presidential candidate pair number 2 Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka is starting to stabilize into two weeks of campaign period, with a position of 50.8 percent. "The electability of the Prabowo-Gibran pair has begun to stabilize in the range of more than 50 percent, so it is certain that the presidential election will run only one round," said Indometer survey agency Executive Director Leonard SB in a written statement to the press in Jakarta, on Saturday. The figure rose slightly from the November 2023 survey which also penetrated 50.1 percent, after previously still being recorded at 45.3 percent in October.

According to his presentation, if there are no significant changes, the 2024 presidential election will certainly take place in just one round. According to Leonard, support for Prabowo-Gibran has increased compared to the beginning of the two starting to be paired ahead of registration to the General Election Commission (KPU). The same thing was not experienced by the presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo and his vice presidential candidate Mahfud MD, who experienced a decrease in electability, from a gain of 32.8 percent in October, Ganjar-Mahfud electability fell to 25.8 percent (November) and now there is only 21.2 percent left. In contrast to the pair Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar, whose electability has actually increased and is now narrowly superior to Ganjar-Mahfud. Up from 15.6 percent (October) to 18.7 percent (November), Anies-Cak Imin has now poked up to 22.0 percent. So far Anies has always occupied the caretaker position in the triangular battle against Prabowo and Ganjar, but in the latest development the pair carrying the jargon change has the potential to become runner-up in the 2024 presidential election, "explained Leonard.

Furthermore, Leonard explained that the decline in Ganjar-Mahfud electability could be explained from the difficulty of the couple offering the idea in the midst of contestation between the vision of sustainability of the Prabowo-Gibran camp and the discourse of changes echoed by Anies-Cak Imin. This is reflected in the first debate held by the KPU, where Prabowo appears to be positioning himself as the incumbent presidential candidate who supports the continuation of Jokowi's programs. Anies with his rhetoric continues to voice criticism of government policies. Ganjar who is in the midst of not being able to offer the right idea, whether to firmly continue Jokowi's program or to launch opposition-style criticism," Leonard continued.

For the record, Ganjar-Mahfud was promoted by PDIP, which incidentally was part of the government. "PDIP itself became the winning party during the two consecutive elections, but its style was just like the opposition to Jokowi," said Leonard.

The attacks made by the Ganjar and PDIP camps against Jokowi have become increasingly violent since the Prabowo-Gibran pair advanced to the presidential election.The latest situation, Leonard continued, where Anies-Cak Imin has the potential to shift Ganjar-Mahfud to third place, needs to be an evaluation material in the remaining campaign strategy for less than the next two months."The strategy of attacking the Jokowi and Prabowo-Gibran camps that have been carried out so far has failed to increase electability, even making Ganjar-Mahfud even worse. Anies-Cak Imin is now the biggest threat to Ganjar-Mahfud's camp and the PDIP coalition," Leonard said.. Previously, the Ganjar and PDIP camps often warned that the fight with Prabowo as fellow nationalists would only benefit Anies. The result is indeed Anies who is strengthening, but the loss is only experienced by Ganjar, not Prabowo. Nyaris no migration of Prabowo voters, which occurred was precisely the transfer of some Ganjar voters and was stolen by Anies, concluded Leonard. Meanwhile, there were still 6.0 percent who still stated they did not know/did not answer. The Indometer survey was conducted on December 1-7, 2023 against 1,200 respondents in all provinces in Indonesia, who were randomly selected with survey-graded (multistage random sampling). The survey margin of error was ~2.98 percent and at a 95 percent confidence level.