The Results Of This Survey Show That Many Jokowi Voters In 2019 Support Prabowo

President Jokowi With Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto/DOK Instagram @prabowo

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Political Statistics Survey Institute (Polstat) released the latest data on the electability of a number of presidential candidates who are predicted to fight in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

Senior Polstat researcher, Apna Permana said, from the three presidential election simulations conducted by their survey institutions on respondents, all of them were won by Prabowo Subianto.

"In various formats of questions to respondents, ranging from open questions (top of mind), closed questions for simulations of 10 names, closed questions for simulation of three names, as well as questions head to head, Prabowo always leads significantly over his competitors," Apna said in a survey release, Saturday, May 20.

As in the closed question of the 10 names of figures offered, 33.5 percent chose Prabowo Subianto. This figure is much higher than Ganjar, who was only chosen by 19.6 percent and Anies supported by 19.4 percent of respondents.

In the next position are Ridwan Kamil with 5.4 percent electability, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (3.6 percent), Erick Thohir (3.2 percent), Sandiaga Uno (2.8 percent), Puan Maharani (2.4 percent), Airlangga Hartarto (2.2 percent) and Muhaimin Iskandar (1.9 percent),

and unlawful (6.2 percent).

Likewise, when the presidential election simulation was only followed by three names, Prabowo Subianto remained in first place with 39.2 percent of the respondents' votes, then 27.1 percent chose Ganjar and 26.9 percent chose Anies. Meanwhile, 6.8 percent of respondents stated that they did not have an option (undecided).

Even when the presidential election simulation is carried out

currently and only followed by Prabowo and Ganjar, 52.3 percent gave Prabowo his choice, then 35.8 percent chose Ganjar and the rest (11.9 percent) admitted that they had no choice.

"Prabowo Subianto also leads far above Anies Baswedan in head-to-head simulations. When Polstat Indonesia asks respondents a question, who will be elected if the presidential election is held at this time and only followed by Prabowo and Anies, as much as

"54.6 percent admitted that they would choose Prabowo and only 34.5 percent chose Anies," he explained.

In addition, the survey then also obtained data in which 43.5 percent of Jokowi's voters in the 2019 Presidential Election admitted that they would vote for Prabowo if the presidential election was currently held.

Meanwhile, Ganjar, who in fact was a fellow PDI-P cadre with Jokowi, was only chosen by 34.2 percent of Jokowi's voters.

"This indicates that Jokowi's supporters, volunteers and sympathizers have made more choices for Prabowo to become President of the Republic of Indonesia in 2024-2029," he said.

The cause of this phenomenon is suspected because in the last three months there has been a significant migration of support from Jokowi volunteers at the grassroots.

"Those who originally would support Ganjar Pranowo turned out to eventually make a choice on Prabowo," he added.

In addition, the effect of Prabowo's meeting with a number of national figures is also suspected to be a supporting factor in the increase in the electability of the Minister of Defense.

"The public is then also considered to have begun to realize that to continue Jokowi Indonesia's great work, it must be led by a strong, visionary and tested leader, not a popular figure who is solely raised by social media," he explained.

Another factor later was that Prabowo seemed to be considered by the public as a statesman who prioritized national unity and interests, and tended to avoid conflict with his competitors.

The Indonesian Polstat Survey this time was conducted on May 1 to 10, 2023 in all regions of the Republic of Indonesia consisting of 34 provinces. The population of this survey is all Indonesians who are at least 17 years old and have an E-KTP.

The number of samples of 1220 respondents was obtained through a multi-state random sampling technique. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percent and at the level of confidence is 95 percent.

Data collection is carried out using a face-to-face interview technique with respondents guided by questionnaires. This time the Polstat survey is equipped with media monitoring analysis to measure the development of public sentiment towards presidential candidates a year ahead of the 2024 General Election.

Electability Rate For Presidential Candidates Simulation 10 Names

Prabowo Subianto 33.5%

Ganjar Pranowo 19.6%

Anies Baswedan 19.4%

Ridwan Kamil 5.4%

Agus Harimurty Yudhoyono 3.5%

Erick Thohir 3.2%

Sandiaga Uno 2.8%

Puan Maharani 2.4%

Airlangga Hartarto 2.2%

Muhaimin Iskandar 1.9%

6.1 Undecided

Electability Rate For Presidential Candidates Simulation 3 Names

Prabowo Subianto 39.2%

Ganjar Pranowo 27.1%

Anies Baswedan 26.9%

Undecided 6.8%

The Electability Rate Of Political Parties

PDI Perjuangan 18.8%

Gerindra Party 16.2%

Democratic Party 10.4%

Golkar Party 10.2%

The Nasdem Party 8.9%

P K B 7.9%

P K S 6.8%

Perindo Party 4.9%

P A N 2.9%

P P 2.1%

Other Parties 3.6%

Undecided 7.3%