JAKARTA - A total of 354,000 Russian and Ukrainian troops have been killed or injured in the Ukraine war leading to a prolonged conflict that may last beyond 2023, according to a collection of US intelligence documents posted online.
If genuine, the documents, which look like US secret assessments of war as well as some of the US espionage against allies, offer rare insight into Washington's view of one of the deadliest conflicts in Europe since the Second World War.
Reuters has not been able to independently verify documents and several countries, including Russia and Ukraine, are questioning the truth, while US officials say some files appear to have been changed.
One of the February 23, 2023 assessments, entitled "Fighting for the Donbas Region is likely to Go to the Stalls Throughout 2023", said Russia was unlikely to be able to take part in eastern Ukraine.
"Russian campaigns in the Donbas region are likely heading towards a stalemate, thwarting Moscow's goal of capturing the entire region by 2023," the assessment said.
The tactics have reduced Russian troops and supplies of ammunition to levels that, except for unexpected recovery, could exhaust Russian units and thwart Moscow's war goals, resulting in a prolonged war through 2023.
Russia's Ministry of Defense did not respond to a request for comment. Moscow said it did not know whether the document was genuine and may be an attempt to spread the dispute.
According to an assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Service, Russia has suffered 189,500-223,000 total casualties, including 35,500-43,000 killed in the war and 154,000-180,000 injured.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has suffered a total of 124,500-131,000 victims, including 15,500-17,500 killed in the war and 109,000-113,500 injured in the action, according to a document entitled "Russia/Ukraine - Assessed Combat Sustainability and Attrition."
This figure is about 10 times greater than any number of public casualties published by Moscow or Kyiv. To note, no party provides timely data on military losses.
Separately, one US document posted on the Russian Telegram channel has a roughly changed number of victims to reduce casualties in Russia and increase casualties in Ukraine. Reuters has seen two versions of the same document as one that is clearly changed.
Documents about victims were broken with the symbol of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Intelligence Service.
Both Russia and Ukraine are considered to have "medium" sustainability of fighting, meaning they are likely to be able to continue fighting for some time.
Documents show that while Russia has an overall advantage in some areas, Ukraine has more tanks and armored personnel carriers (APC) on the battlefield than Russia.
Russia, according to the Defense Intelligence Service, has lost 2,048 tanks and 3,900 APCs, while Ukraine lost 468 tanks and 1,020 APCs. Furthermore, Ukraine is said to have 802 tanks and 3,498 APCs, while Russia has 419 tanks and 2,928 APCs on the battlefield.
However, Russia has an advantage in warplanes and air defenses. Reuters was unable to verify the figure, which contradicts Russia's tally of the destruction of Ukrainian equipment.
US documents also show concern in Washington about a distant Ukrainian attack on Russia - and even potentially on Moscow - due to the impact of such an attack on China's position.
"China will respond more strongly and most likely scale up and the scope of material it is willing to give Russia, if a Ukrainian attack hits a site with high strategic value or appears to target senior Russian leaders," the intelligence assessment report said.
So far, Reuters has reviewed more than 50 documents, labeled "secret" and "Very Secret", which first appeared on social media sites in March, said to reveal details of Ukraine's military vulnerabilities and information about allies including Israel, South Korea, and Turkey.
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