JAKARTA - Poltracking Indonesia released the latest survey results regarding the electoral power map of presidential candidates. As a result, the electability of the top three strongest presidential candidates, namely Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, and Prabowo Subianto, is still very competitive.
"In the simulation of 20 presidential candidates, there has been no change in the composition of the top three strongest presidential candidates. However, the highest is Ganjar Pranowo with 28.3 percent, followed by Anies Baswedan with 24.9 percent, and Prabowo Subianto with 23.1. The difference between Anies and Pranowo is in the margin of error, the range is quite good at Ganjar Pranowo," said the Executive Director of Poltracking Indonesia, Only Yuda AR, in his presentation Thursday, December 22.
While other names, have a fairly long distance. In fourth place and so on, there are Puan Maharani 2.6 percent, Ridwan Kamil 2.5 percent, Erick Thohir 1.5 percent, Khofifah Indar Parawansa 1.2 percent, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 1.1 percent, Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno 1.1 percent, and other names under 1 percent.
This survey also measures the simulation of 5 presidential candidates. This simulation of 5 names, according to Hanta, is quite important because the percentage of the political map of the 2024 presidential election is increasingly narrowing in 5 names of figures. They are figures who have a fairly large opportunity to advance, because they have electability strength and/or boarding pass holders or ticket owners of political parties.
"So there are 2 strong electability variables but they don't have tickets, 2 people have weak electability but have tickets, only Pak Prabowo has a decent ticket and electability," explained Hanta.
The 5 names simulation consists of 3 strongest presidential candidates with electability, namely Anies Baswedan, Ganjar Pranowo, and Prabowo Subianto. Meanwhile, 2 of the elite figures or veto players in their respective parties, namely the daughter of PDIP General Chair Puan Maharani and Golkar Chair Airlangga Hartarto.
"The PDI-P politically still directs the presidential candidate's exclusive ticket to Puan Maharani. Meanwhile, Airlangga Hartarto is a presidential candidate from the Golkar Party, which has more than half of the nomination tickets.
"The Golkar Party has also formed a United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) with PAN and PPP, which in regulation has exceeded the presidential threshold, which also means that it is sufficient for one ticket for the nomination of presidential and vice presidential candidates. It is just a matter of waiting for the solidity of the coalition to register with the KPU," said Hanta.
Returning to the findings in the simulation of 5 presidential candidates, Ganjar Pranowo's electability remained strong at 30.6 percent, followed by Anies Baswedan 27.2 percent and Prabowo Subianto 26.9 percent and Puan Maharani 3.4 percent and Airlangga Hartarto 1.5 percent.
"Three names that have so far been included in the strongest presidential candidate radar tend to be competitive. Meanwhile, Puan is exclusive, because she can directly advance from PDIP. And Pak Airlangga has a strong party," said Hanta.
Finally, this survey also measures the simulation of the 3 strongest presidential candidates who tend to be competitive. Namely, Ganjar Pranowo's electability figure is still superior with 32.5 percent, Anies Baswedan 29.1 percent and Prabowo Subianto 27.8.
"The latest trend (November 2022) of the electability of the 3 strongest presidential candidates, Anies Baswedan, Ganjar Pranowo, and Prabowo Subianto, tends to increase. Anies has experienced a significant increase, while Ganjar and Prabowo tend to be stable with a slight increase," concluded Hanta Yuda.
The Poltracking Indonesia survey was held on November 21-27, 2022 using a multistage random sampling method. Surveys through face-to-face interviews with questionnaires who have been randomly selected.
The number of samples in this survey is 1,220 respondents in 34 provinces with a margin of error +/- 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
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