ASEAN+3 Economic Growth Is Predicted To Drop To 3.3 Percent In 2022

AMRO chief economist Hoe Ee Khor. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) revised its projected economic growth in the ASEAN+3 region (China, Japan, and Korea) in 2022 from 3.7 percent in October 2022 to 3.3 percent in January 2023.

"This is mainly due to continued weakening in the Plus-3 economy, especially China, whose growth has turned out to be much weaker," said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor in a virtual press conference, quoted from Antara, Tuesday, January 17.

Despite the decline, he continued, the ASEAN region itself has the potential to grow higher than the prediction of 5.3 percent in October 2022 to 5.6 percent in January 2023 due to strong domestic demand growth.

Meanwhile, in 2023 growth in the ASEAN+3 region is projected to strengthen to 4.3 percent because China's economy is expected to recover strongly. This is influenced by the opening of Chinese restrictions and the lifting of various easing policies related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Inflation is expected to drop to 4.5 percent in 2023 from the projected 6.3 percent jump last year," he said.

The opening of China's borders, especially with the return of Chinese tourists who have the potential to encourage the tourism sector, will provide a boost to world economic growth despite current obstacles to economic activity in the United States (US) and the European region which is overshadowed by the risk of recession.

This global economic bottleneck is influenced by the tightening of aggressive monetary policy in the United States, so export orders will be weaker for ASEAN+3.

"The stronger Chinese economy will provide support for regional activity while reopening borders will increase intra-regional tourism," Hoe Ee Khor said.