Independent Sekuritaskirakan Suku Bunga Baik Jadi 6 Percent Di Kuartal I 2023, Kenapa?

Photo: Doc. Antara

JAKARTA - Head of Mandiri Sekuritas Economist Leo Putera Rinaldy estimates that the benchmark interest rate for Bank Indonesia 7 Day Reverse Repo Rate will be increased by 50 basis points (bps) to 6.00 percent in the first quarter of 2023.

"We expect BI 7 Day Reverse Repo Rate to be in 6 percent position. There is another 50 basis point (bps) increase which was front-loaded in the first quarter of 2023," he said at a press conference in Jakarta, quoted from Antara, Tuesday, January 10.

Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain a benchmark interest rate of 6 percent until the end of 2023, then begin to decline in 2024. This estimate is measured from inflation which is estimated to have decreased to 3.8 percent on an annual basis from 5.5 percent in 2023.

In addition, Leo projects that Indonesia's economic growth will reach 4.9 percent on an annual basis in 2023, supported by public consumption growth of 5.28 percent.

Public consumption is expected to grow due to inflation which decreased to 3.8 percent in 2023.

Meanwhile, the current account is estimated to experience a deficit of 0.7 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) again.

The national bond yield is expected to reach 6.9 percent or still higher than the United States bond yield which decreased to 3.4 percent from 3.8 percent in 2022.

Leo appreciated Bank Indonesia's move to provide a minimum Giro Mandatory (GWM) incentive to encourage the distribution of bank credit to priority sectors amid the increase in BI's benchmark interest rate.

"So Bank Indonesia provides incentives to support lending to certain sectors. Because if GWM is lowered, this will have an impact on all sectors," he said.