There Have Been Changes In Economic Dynamics, The Government Needs To Study The Enumeration Of Rupiah Exchange Values In The 2023 State Budget

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - Director of the Center of Economics and Law Studies (Celios) Bhima Yudhistira said that with the current changes in economic dynamics, the government needs to review the assumption of the rupiah exchange rate in the 2023 State Budget. Initially, the value was at the level of Rp. 14,800. "The assumption that the exchange rate in the 2023 State Budget needs to be revised because of changes in economic dynamics. "Commodity price moderation affects the defense of rupiah stability," said Bhima, on Monday, October 17. According to Bhima, in the first semester of 2022, the rupiah exchange rate can still be maintained with the help of commodity bonanza. Once there is a reversal, the pressure on the exchange rate can occur. "Next, adjustments to the rupiah exchange rate are urgent because spending posture will increase, especially energy subsidy spending," said Bhima. For your information, the government and the Budget Agency or Banggar DPR RI also agreed on an energy subsidy budget in 2023 of IDR 211.9 trillion. The basic assumption for Makro 2023 states that the target for economic growth is 5.3 percent, inflation is 3.6 percent, the exchange rate is Rp. 14,800 per US dollar. Bhima admitted that he was also worried about the realization of higher energy subsidies than planned to make pressure on fuel price adjustments happen again next year. As is known, the price of fuel has also undergone adjustments last September. Furthermore, Bhima said the increase in fuel prices contributed to inflation and could suppress economic recovery. "Also high energy inflation can suppress economic recovery," said Bhima. In the midst of strengthening the dollar against the rupiah, Bhima explained that the government could do 'extra effort', namely to encourage foreign exchange of more export results to be converted to rupiah exchange, especially mining foreign exchange and plantation products. "In a situation where strong dollars occur continuously, BI needs to prepare capital control or conditions for exporters to store export results in domestic banking for at least 6-9 months," said Bhima. Then finally, said Bhima, increasing the portion of local currency settlement by increasing cooperation in major export destination countries using local exchange rates. The Challenges are Heavyer Meanwhile, Director of the Center for Budget Analysis (CBA) Uchok Sky Khadafi reminded all parties not to be complacent with Indonesia's current economic conditions which are still able to survive, and even get praise from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to him, the challenges ahead will be even more difficult. This was shown by one of the weakening of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar, which further increased the burden on the state budget. "The economic storm is getting closer, when the rupiah is weak, it will burden our state budget," he explained. Uchok said Indonesia was still using the US dollar to pay off foreign debt and other purposes. When the rupiah exchange rate weakens against the US dollar, it will increase the amount of rupiah issued. "Because when you want to pay off debt and interest on debt in the form of US dollars, it will increase high in rupiah. Imports of raw materials or other goods, will be high and expensive. "People's purchasing power is getting weaker, and over time, the rupiah is no longer selling as a domestic buying and selling transaction itself," he said.

Therefore, Uchok suggested that the 2023 State Budget planning should provide more space for the agriculture, plantation, and food sectors. According to him, other sectors should be postponed first. In addition, said Uchok, state spending allocations for defense equipment in the TNI and Polri should also be diverted for food and energy independence. "In the future, there must be a lot of agriculture and plantations to grow food. Please stay with the IKN project, or the 2023 State Budget to increase to Rp3,050 trillion," he said. Previously, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said, Indonesia is still more resilient than the economic crisis that is currently occurring at the global level compared to many other countries. "Several rating agencies such as S&P and others see Indonesia's economy relatively stable in the midst of its many rating countries falling. This once again shows strong economic fundamentals and from finance, debt, fiscal and monetary quite prudent," said Coordinating Minister Airlangga some time ago. In fact, Airlangga said that the government remains optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth is at the 5 percent level. That optimism departs from predictions issued by the IMF. "Optimistics grew above 5 percent. The IMF also estimates that", he told reporters when met at Gelora Bung Karno (GBK), Jakarta, Sunday, October 16. For your information, the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) IMF report estimates the global economy at a range of 3.2 percent in 2022, and slowed down to 2.7 percent in 2023, or decreased by 0.2 percent compared to outlooks in July 2022. Although the world economy was slowing down and threatened with recession, the IMF estimates that Indonesia could still grow at a range of five percent in 2023 or slightly decreased from 5.3 percent in 2022.