JAKARTA - Deputy Director of Indef, Eko Listyo said the export rate which was able to grow better than the first quarter of 2022 contributed to the increase in economic growth in the second quarter of 2022.
Therefore, he reminded the government to maintain the windfall of export performance in the second quarter, not to let it slacken in the next two quarters.
As is known, in the second quarter of exports grew 19.74 percent yoy, higher than the first quarter of 2022 which was 16.69 percent yoy.
"We hope that the windfall from exports will not slow down in the next two quarters. Although we will note that the signs of a depleting surplus are already visible," he said in a virtual discussion, Sunday, August 7.
Eko said. Rising inflationary pressures in Indonesia's main trading partner countries could run the risk of eroding the surplus in the next two quarters.
"When the purchasing power of the main trading partner countries is depressed, the consequence is that the demand for goods and services may decrease. This issue has the potential to be more complicated, because the implications can spread to the coffers of foreign exchange reserves which are at risk of shrinking," he explained.
According to Eko, the government is currently trying to maintain economic interest rates.
However, the implication of this policy is that the value of the rupiah is depressed, so that it requires more frequent monetary operations. This requires ammunition in the form of foreign exchange reserves.
"If we can't maintain the export surplus, it is possible that the pressure on the rupiah will be much higher. Because one of the main supports is because a lot of foreign capital has come out. Especially there - portfolio funds in line with the aggressiveness of the Fed Fund Rate (FFR)," he said.
"On the other hand, we do have a different strategy, namely trying to keep pushing the economy in terms of interest rates," he continued.
Based on INDEF data, Indonesia experienced an export surplus. This is marked by an increase in total exports from 102.88 billion US dollars in January-June 2021 to 141.07 billion dollars in January-June 2022 or an increase of 37.11 percent.
In it, there was also an increase in non-oil and gas exports by 37.33 percent in the same period.
There are two biggest components driving the January-June 2022 increase, namely mineral fuels which amounted to US$24.11 billion, an increase of 18.09 percent and animal/vegetable fats and oils of US$15.14 billion, an increase of 11.35. percent.
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