JAKARTA - The government through the Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) assesses that the performance of the trade balance which scored a surplus of 7.56 billion US dollars in April 2022 is a signal that the recovery and strengthening of the economy at the beginning of this year is going well.
Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency (BKF) of the Ministry of Finance, Febrio Kacaribu, said that a high trade balance surplus will have a more positive impact on the formation of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2022.
In addition, he also revealed that these conditions helped support the stability of the rupiah exchange rate in the midst of global risk pressure so that it became a cushion for Indonesia's economic stability.
"When compared to 2021, the direction of strengthening in the 2022 period is estimated to be much better. This is due to a larger trade balance surplus, as well as a pandemic that is increasingly leading to an endemic that reduces mobility barriers," he said in a press statement, Wednesday, May 18.
According to Febrio, the brilliant score in the first four months of this year continued the surplus trend for 24 consecutive months and became the largest book in history.
"Indonesia's export and import performance in April 2022 showed more positive conditions compared to the same month and period in the previous year," he said.
Febrio added that the potential for strengthening the value of exports will continue to be high in line with the positive trend in commodity prices on the global market which is expected to continue. This continues to be well balanced by consistently strong growth in non-oil and gas exports.
“This is clear evidence of an improvement in the fundamental economic structure. The government will continue to strive so that this improvement is sustainable," he said.
Furthermore, Sri Mulyani's subordinate explained that the government continues to monitor the potential impact of Russia-Ukraine tensions, one of which is through the transmission of volume and global commodity prices.
On the one hand, rising global commodity prices have had a positive impact on our exports, particularly in relation to energy, mineral and metal commodities, where Indonesia exports in large quantities, thereby maintaining the momentum of national economic growth.
"Strengthening exports are expected to continue to support the trade balance surplus so that it continues to have a positive impact on real sector activity. The increased liquidity obtained from export activities will have a positive impact on consumption activity and domestic investment, so it is hoped that this will maintain the momentum of economic recovery," he said.
Febrio ensured that the government will continue to be aware of the indirect impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both related to the weakening global economic performance and related to the spike in commodity prices.
“Global trade disruption will depress the pace of global economic recovery, which is projected to slow further. Meanwhile, the surge in commodity prices, particularly energy and food, will boost domestic inflation. Therefore, the government will maintain price stability and the availability of food and energy, including providing certain social assistance for low-income groups," he concluded.
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