Biden Is Not Sure To Win Even Though He Excels In The National Opinion Polls

Illustration of the US Presidential Election (Raga Granada / VOI)

JAKARTA - United States (US) Democratic Party politician Joe Biden excels in national polls as a candidate for US President. The question is, has this popularity guaranteed the victory of the US election which adheres to the electoral college system? The answer is uncertain.

On Tuesday November 2, Biden was 10 points ahead of Trump nationwide with 52 percent, according to NBC News. This figure has been stable in the past year in the US political world.

"This is the 11th survey we are doing in 2020 and so little has changed," said Democratic Campaigner Peter Hart, who conducted the poll with Republican Campaigner Bill McInturff.

Meanwhile, the electability survey results from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal noted the opposite for the incumbent US President Donald Trump. According to the research, 6 out of 10 voters said the country was on the wrong track and the majority disagreed with Trump's leadership, especially in dealing with COVID-19.

Even so, McInturff reminded that Trump has the ability to stand out on election day. Of the 68 percent of voters who said they voted or planned to vote earlier, Biden was ahead 61 percent. But among the 28 percent of voters who said they cast their vote on November 3, Trump led with 61 percent.

"This is the most competitive election I can imagine if you drop 10 points nationally," said McInturff.

Electoral college

Even though Biden has a survey lead, it is yet to determine his victory. Keep in mind, however, that the US Electoral system uses an electoral college. So what is an electoral college?

When Americans vote in US elections, they are not actually electing the president directly. Instead, it selects a group of officials who will be assigned to elect one of the candidates for President and Vice President of the US. That person is known as an elector.

Each state has as many voters or electors as members of parliament in the US Congress. California, for example, has the largest number of electors at 55 while some sparsely populated states such as Wyoming, Alaska and North Dakota have a minimum of three. In total there are 538 electors.

Each elector represents one vote. Meanwhile, to be elected President of the US, candidates must get at least 270 votes.

In addition, the winner takes all election system, making one of the winning candidates in a state entitled to take all the electors. For example, if a candidate wins 50.1 percent of the vote in Texas, they are given all of the state's electoral votes. In other words, a candidate can win hands down. There are only two states (Maine and Nebraska) that divide electoral college votes according to the proportion of votes each candidate receives.

This system allows one of the candidates to win the presidential seat by gaining majority votes in densely populated areas, even though they have lost votes in the national accumulation.

2016 US Election

A real example is the 2016 US Presidential Election when Trump faced Hillary Clinton. In terms of popularity and surveys, Hillary Clinton was ahead by 48 percent compared to Trump at 45 percent, according to a survey by Pew Research.

However, the situation reversed after the election. According to an electoral college tally quoted from CNN, Trump won 306 votes while Clinton got 232 votes.

Trump won hands down and succeeded in occupying the presidency. This proves that no matter how popular a candidate is, it is the elector who determines the victory of the candidate.

Maybe this time Joe Biden is a more popular candidate. While Trump often issues blunder information, especially in dealing with COVID-19.

Biden, Barack Obama's former vice president, has a slightly superior popularity. However, unlike in Indonesia, where the president is directly elected by the people, the US really depends on their representatives: the elector.