SPIN Survey: Prabowo's Electability Wins From Ganjar And Anies, 12 Percent Difference

Prabowo Subianto/DOK Instagram @prabowo

JAKARTA - Director of Survey and Polling Indonesia (SPIN), Igor Dirgantara, conveyed the results of the 2024 presidential candidate electability survey.

The survey results show that Prabowo is still consistently at the top of the electability ladder rather than the 13 national figures who appear in the questionnaire.

"Prabowo is still at the peak of the electability of presidential candidates with 34.6 percent. The 2nd and 3rd largest electability is still occupied by Ganjar and Anies with a percentage of 24.8 percent and 18.5 percent, respectively," said Igor, Thursday, October 12.

When summarized in the questionnaire, only 3 (three) names were entered, Prabowo was still ahead. Prabowo Subianto was at 39.9 percent, Ganjar Pranowo 31.1 percent and Anies Baswedan 21.7 percent with an undecided voter of 7.3 percent.

Prabowo Unggungli Factors Ganjar And Anies

Judging from several factors, Igor found reasons why Prabowo Subianto still excels on the electability ladder in his survey.

"The results of the SPIN analysis found that there were 4 factors that caused Prabowo's electability to increase," he said.

Pertama menurut Igor adalah peran Joko Widodo yang cukup intensif memberikan sinyal tentang dukungannya kepada Prabowo Subianto untuk maju dalam bursa Pilpres 2024. Ditambahkan soal sikap Presiden RI ke-6 Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) yang mendukung Prabowo sebagai calon Presiden.

"The existence of Jokowi's effect and SBY's effect on Prabowo as a presidential candidate in 2024 and the formation of the Advanced Indonesia Coalition. The public considers that as a presidential candidate in 2024 Prabowo is actually endorsed by two Indonesian Presidents in power for two terms (10 years)," he explained.

The second reason Igor said was Ganjar Pranowo's attitude which tends to be blundered regarding several aspects. The most flashlight is about Indonesia's rejection as the host of the 20th World Cup

"The blunder carried out by Ganjar Pranowo himself, is like the failure of Indonesia to host the U-20 World Cup. In addition, the public considers Ganjar to be sovereign. In contrast to Prabowo, who is more sovereign as the general chairman of the party (Gerindra) than Ganjar as a party official from PDIP," explained Igor.

According to Igor, the third is about Food Estate. Where the national strategic project is actually President Joko Widodo's program run by the Minister of Defense.

Meanwhile, PDIP as a party from Jokowi actually carried out a political attack on the project, which means that many people think that PDIP is actually carrying out a political attack on Jokowi, not on Prabowo directly.

"The blunder carried out by PDIP itself is like the harsh criticism of the food estate project from the Minister of Defense. Even though President Jokowi firmly said there was no ministerial vision and mission, what was there was the president's vision," he continued.

Fourth, according to Igor, is the negative narrative conveyed by the General Chairperson of the Hanura Party, Oesman Sapta Odang, who said that a President must have a wife. Legally, of course, there are no rules that provide conditions for a presidential or vice-presidential candidate to have a wife. So what Hanura narrated was that the notabane of the PDIP coalition party actually made many public antipathy against Ganjar.

"Blunders are carried out by one of the chairmanes of his supporting party, Hanura, who said that the president must have a wife. There is no context to talk about the competence of a presidential candidate with the ownership of a wife. In fact, many presidents in various countries are single. Call for example Russian president Vladimir Putin, South Korean President Park Gen Hye (2013-2017), former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte (2010), Philippine President Benigno Aquino III (2010-2016), and others," said Igor.

Finally, Igor explained the fifth, about the hoax narrative raised by Ganjar Pranowo supporters, which he considered to have a positive effect on Prabowo Subianto.

One of them, called Igor, was about the slander of the Defense Minister slapping the Deputy Minister in the middle of a cabinet meeting held by the boss of Seword, Alifurrahman Alifurrahman S Asyari, who was a supporter of Ganjar Pranowo.

"Hoaxes are spread by buzzers supporting Ganjar to criticize Prabowo, such as fake news related to the spread of Wamentan by the Minister of Defense at cabinet meetings," explained Igor.

In fact, the news narrated by Ganjar Pranowo volunteers who incidentally were PDIP politicians was finally denied by two figures, namely Wamenan Harvick Hasnul Qolbi and also President Jokowi himself.

"Not only the Deputy Minister who denied the hoax news, even President Jokowi had to say that the news was not true and Prabowo was a patient person," he added.

Simulation Head to Head

In this survey, SPIN also measures potential if a head-to-head simulation is carried out. Where Prabowo faced Ganjar, and Prabowo faced Anies Baswedan. As a result, Prabowo was still ahead of the two.

Prabowo vs Ganjar, the result was Prabowo 50.9% and Ganjar 38% with an undecidend voters 11.1 percent. While Prabowo vs Anies the result was Prabowo 56.7 percent and Anies 30.8 percent with an undecidend voter 12.5 percent.

This survey was conducted by SPIN with a time span of September 29 - October 7, 2023. At least 1,230 respondents were distributed in 34 provinces in Indonesia with a Margin of Error - / + 2.8 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent, of which respondents were residents aged 17 years and over or who already had ID cards.

The sampling distribution technique used is multistage random sampling. Meanwhile, field data collection techniques use direct interviews with the help of questionnaires.