Will Saudi And Israel Really Open Diplomatic Relations?

Photos of the archives - Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz (Navy Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Kathryn E. Holm via Wikimedia Commons)

JAKARTA - Not so rumbling in the world of Arabs and Muslims, but in the West and Israel, the initiative to normalize diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel looks more desirable for Israel than Saudi Arabia.

Reported by ANTARA, Monday, September 25, in recent days, the ruler of Saudi de facto, Prince Mohammed bin Salman who is familiarly called MbS, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, replied to a reconciliational message.

On September 20, in an interview with Fox television station in the United States, MbS revealed that Saudi Arabia and Israel were getting closer to reaching an agreement.

"Every day we get closer. It seems that for the first time the deal is really serious," said MbS.

The successor to King Salman's throne believes that a pact he calls the biggest historic agreement since the Cold War will soon be realized.

Two days later, at the UN General Assembly in New York, Netanyahu confirmed MbS' statement that Saudis, Israel and the US were "already at their peak" to reach an agreement.

Netanyahu even estimates that there will be an agreement that he calls a "quantum leap".

Until that point, most Arab and Muslim countries were not very happy with the news.

Maybe because they think it is impossible or because it is too heavy to imagine how perhaps the country that is at the forefront of the Islamic world must make up with a country that has been considered to be suffering for Palestine.

However, if you look at the frequent MbS talking about the prospect of opening relations with Israel, Saudi-Israel reconciliation is no longer a matter of rhetoric.

MbS, even called a number of global media, has held secret meetings with Netanyahu once.

Israel itself views Saudi Arabia as the key to a comprehensive peace with the Arab and Muslim worlds.

Although Israel has diplomatic relations with Egypt and Turkey that are influential in the Islamic world, apart from Jordan, who has the status of "protectors of Muslim holy places, including the Aqsa Mosque", Israel puts greater weight on Saudis.

The Saudi bobot is also certainly much tougher than the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, Morocco, and Bahrain which opened diplomatic relations with Israel ambassadors last year within the framework of Abraham Accord.

The gateway to peace

Diplomatic relations with Saudis are Israel's gateway to similar good relations with countries that have not yet recognized their existence, so that they can automatically release global isolation to the country that has occurred since Israel was founded in 1948.

Netanyahu, who faced intense domestic opposition due to his controversial policies, including amendments to amputating Israel's justice system, would get major political incentives if he succeeded in realizing peace with Saudis.

For three years, President Joe Biden in the United States will have a very valuable political provision that can increase his domestic popularity if he succeeds in reconciling Saudi Arabia and Israel.

It will be a major political sell in the 2024 elections that are likely to face Donald Trump again who made impressive records in the Middle East, as it prompted four Arab countries to open diplomatic relations with Israel.

MbS himself is clever in reading the situation. He knows that Israel and the United States need Saudis more to make peace with Israel, than Saudi Arabia's desire to make peace with Israel.

MbS may know the idea is not popular in its own country. The Arab Youth Survey poll recently showed that only 2 percent of young Saudis support the normalization of relations with Israel. That figure is much lower than the United Arab Emirates and Egypt where 75 and 73 percent of young people support diplomatic relations with Israel, respectively.

However, MbS, which is in an absolute power regime, can ignore public disapproval by submitting normalization terms that benefit Saudi Arabia, or at least paint Saudi Arabia's higher bargaining position.

Among these conditions are a stronger military pact with the US, so Saudi Arabia gets full security protection guarantees if attacked from outside, especially Iran which is on the verge of possessing nuclear weapons, even though Saudi and Iranians have normalized relations.

Saudis also want the US to help it develop a civilian nuclear program. Here, Saudi Arabia does not ask the US to help their engineers wake up nuclear reactors, but in a format where Saudi Arabia only provides land, while its operator is US, so it is somewhat similar to Saudi giant oil company Aramco, which was originally managed by the US.

It was Iran, and not Israel, which prompted MbS to try to bring Saudi Arabia into control of nuclear capabilities. "If they control nuclear, we also have to master it, although for now we don't see it so," MbS said in an interview with Fox.

Regarding Saudi access to nuclear energy, this is a dilemma for the US. They still find it difficult to imagine an Islamic country that could endanger Israel's position in charge of nuclear control.

However, if you look at Pakistan which is also a Muslim country, nuclear ownership does not make Pakistan act rashly. On the other hand, Pakistan can still be controlled by the US.

Therefore, there is no reason not to grant the nuclear request from Saudi Arabia, moreover what Saudi Arabia wants is only a peaceful nuclear program.

Except as brave as MbS

If the US finds it difficult to grant these conditions, then they must be willing to see Saudis, which are trusted allies in the Middle East, turn to China or Russia, which have expressed readiness to help Saudis develop nuclear.

Another requirement proposed by Saudi Arabia concerns the fate of Palestine. This is not the only time Saudi Arabia has issued this requirement, because this country also took part in the Arab Peace Pre-Corruption in 2002.

The 2002 precondition for Arabia stated that good relations with Israel only occurred if Israel returned the Arab territories it occupied in the 1967 War. Not only that, Saudi Arabia also requires the existence of a Palestinian State.

"For us, the Palestinian issue is very important. We (Saudi, Israel, and the US) must overcome that part," said MbS.

But the Palestinian issue could be the most difficult to sell, both by Netanyahu and Biden, in their respective home countries.

Netanyahu must have been opposed by his right coalition partners, on the other hand Biden is opposed by Republicans who do not want to imagine a country other than Israel in the Middle East, taking control of the nuclear.

MbS himself looks clever because it launched a diplomatic offensive when Israel is under the control of the right.

If only the ruling regime in Israel were currently a left or moderate group, Saudi proposals might be unanimously accepted by the Israeli regime. However, it would certainly cause turmoil and be completely resisted by right groups, if necessary with violence.

The assassination of PM Yitzak Rabin on November 4, 1995 is an example. Rabin was killed by Jewish extremists after making a peace agreement with Palestine (PLO) which included "the right of the Palestinian people in determining their own destiny."

Oleh karena itu, normalisasi hubungan Saudi-Israel lebih membawa tantangan memperbatis dan besar bagi Israel dan AS, dibandingkan pada pihak Saudi.

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen has indeed stated that a draft normalization agreement on Saudi-Israel relations may already be available in early 2024, but that will not appear to eliminate the potential crisis in Israel.

That's also what makes some skeptics of normalization of Saudi-Israel relations come true, except for the US and Israel as brave as MbS in offering breakthroughs to realize the normalization of relations that can completely change the global geopolitical landscape.

The problem is, are the US and Israel ready to take steps as brave and as far as MbS has done? These are the questions and aspects that may be the most decisive in realizing normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations.